Soccer season probs for premiership

Along with out normal Soccer modelsoccerball2, we also predict odds for the premiership as well as finishing dead last.

Here are the probabilities and associated bets for the premiership after lasts round for several of the leagues

Australian A Leauge

Team P(Prem) Odds Overlay
Gold Coast United 18.5% 4
Brisbane Roar 16.4% 9 47.5%
Melbourne Victory 16.4% 5.3
Central Coast Mariners 15.4% 11 69.2%
Sydney 14.1% 5.5
Perth Glory 9.1% 14 27.3%
Adelaide United 6.9% 15
Newcastle Jets 1.1% 41
Wellington Phoenix 0.9% 51
North Queensland Fury 0.9% 101

So we have decent overlays on Brisbane, Central Coast and Perth for the outsider. More open market than most leagues, generally because of the finals system.

Spain

Team P(Prem) Odds Overlay
Barcelona 71.4% 1.72 22.9%
Real Madrid 27.8% 2.3
Sevilla 0.8% 81

Barcelona look the good bet here, with a nice 22.9% overlay for them to win the season over Real Madrid.

Italy

Team P(Prem) Odds Overlay
Internazionale 74.1% 1.8 33.3%
Juventus 17.2% 2.63
Milan 3.8% 18
Sampdoria 3.6% 41 46.4%
Udinese 1.1% 201 123.3%
Fiorentina 0.7% 68
Roma 0.1% 51
Lazio 0.1% 251

Good money again on the favourite, with a reasonable outsider in Sampdoria. An overlay exists on Udinese, but at odds of $201, don’t get your hopes up.

English Premier League

Team P(Prem) Odds Overlay
Manchester United 37.0% 3 11.1%
Liverpool 31.3% 7 118.8%
Chelsea 23.3% 2.85
Arsenal 8.3% 9

Last year we had big overlays on Man U throughout the season at reasonable odds. This year the big overlay exists on Liverpool, who after a terrible start, seems to be back on the winning side

France

Team P(Prem) Odds Overlay
Bordeaux 54.1% 3 62.2%
Olympique Lyon 27.8% 2.3
Olympique Marseille 16.7% 5.5
PSG 0.9% 23
Stade Rennes 0.3% 67
Toulouse 0.3% 151

Big overlay on league leader Bordeaux. Their odds keep on shortening with every match

Germany

Team P(Prem) Odds Overlay
Bayern M³nchen 40.0% 1.91
Bayer Leverkusen 18.5% 11 103.7%
Hamburger SV 14.1% 6.5
VfL Wolfsburg 10.3% 12 23.7%
Werder Bremen 7.7% 19 46.2%
Schalke 04 5.0% 15
Hoffenheim 3.3% 26
VfB Stuttgart 0.6% 41
Freiburg 0.1% 501
Borussia Dortmund 0.1% 151

Early favourite Bayern Munchen has had a very indifferent start to the year, which gives us big overlays on Bayer Leverkusen and other outsiders.

Netherlands

Team P(Prem) Odds Overlay
PSV 50.0% 2.75 37.5%
Ajax 35.7% 2.75
Twente 12.0% 7
AZ 2.8% 15
Utrecht 0.1% 48

50/50 chance by our predictions for PSV to take the top spot at the end of the year

Scotland

Team P(Prem) Odds Overlay
Celtic 74.1% 1.57 16.3%
Rangers 26.3% 2.75

Always a two horse race when it comes to the Scottish Premier League. Small overlay on Celtic to take the crown.

All the free soccer predictions are available here. And be sure to check back regularly for more updates.

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