Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 1

tennis2Following the 2009 Tennis season, I’im going to have a look at how we did during the season.

First up is the ATP, which started well, had a terrible mid to late season and then finished with a good couple of weeks at the end.

The breakdown of all the bets that were made are shown below. This shows a couple of interesting things. Profits were not nearly as big as previous years where in 2008 11.2% ROI was made. Higher probabilities didn’t make a profit, however the amount of bets means we can’t read too much into this. What is interesting is that betting at odds of 3.00 or more failed to make a profit. This is shown in the overlays as well, where our big 100% overlays made a loss with only one win from 23 bets. This is normally our bread and butter. This area, 100%+ overlays was really where the model fell down. I will be analysing the data in more detail to determine why this was the case. With so few bets it could well be just a case of random variation, just not in our favour.

ProbBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.100-$-$--
0.10.200-$-$--
0.20.300-$-$--
0.30.41603622.5% $23,783.56 -$812.79-3.4%
0.40.51183933.1% $23,499.31 $81.330.3%
0.50.624110945.2% $38,708.44 $1,651.39 4.3%
0.60.71939750.3% $39,843.12 $1,802.93 4.5%
0.70.81258366.4% $34,859.76 $103.990.3%
0.80.9614268.9% $23,443.95 -$1,477.48 -6.3%
0.91201575.0% $11,696.24 -$316.00-2.7%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%
OddsBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.4765876.3% $28,100.02 $1,499.16 5.3%
1.41.716210564.8% $38,157.77 $165.040.4%
1.721557447.7% $29,553.76 -$2,124.56 -7.2%
22.251316045.8% $23,323.53 -$2,351.40 -10.1%
2.252.5673044.8% $14,866.31 $2,371.88 16.0%
2.53763748.7% $16,998.01 $6,244.11 36.7%
341393625.9% $24,865.40 -$1,152.12 -4.6%
461042120.2% $18,092.43 -$1,952.16 -10.8%
610700.0% $1,590.43 -$1,379.85 -86.8%
1050100.0%$286.72-$286.72-100.0%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%
OverlayBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0500-$-$--
0.050.119111962.3% $29,393.27 $744.112.5%
0.10.151478155.1% $29,596.59 -$751.29-2.5%
0.150.2885259.1% $23,948.53 $1,634.18 6.8%
0.20.25542648.1% $14,394.36 -$800.55-5.6%
0.250.3903842.2% $17,413.68 $1,352.18 7.8%
0.30.41394633.1% $29,823.96 -$1,146.67 -3.8%
0.40.61264233.3% $28,892.49 $4,651.68 16.1%
0.61601626.7% $15,256.10 $707.124.6%
152314.3% $7,115.39 -$5,357.37 -75.3%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%

We will have the WTA analysis in the next post, which is a lot more encouraging. Full results to come.

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