The AFL season is fast approaching, and even this weekend the pre season cup will start. So just for a teaser for the start of the AFL season, we will look at what teams were the most underrated and overrated teams of 2009.
How will we decide? Well if were to make a bet on each team throughout the season to win $100, what teams would have made us the most and least profit? The answers are shown below:
| Team | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide | $5,125.90 | $741.31 | 14.5% |
| Brisbane | $5,154.55 | $604.59 | 11.7% |
| Collingwood | $5,872.79 | $417.61 | 7.1% |
| Geelong | $17,981.51 | $1,085.54 | 6.0% |
| St. Kilda | $13,955.41 | $169.49 | 1.2% |
| North Melbourne | $1,716.69 | -$12.48 | -0.7% |
| West Coast | $2,250.36 | -$79.34 | -3.5% |
| Sydney | $2,278.08 | -$123.07 | -5.4% |
| Essendon | $2,121.13 | -$118.86 | -5.6% |
| Carlton | $5,261.66 | -$331.64 | -6.3% |
| Western Bulldogs | $8,571.29 | -$597.34 | -7.0% |
| Melbourne | $728.01 | -$82.51 | -11.3% |
| Port Adelaide | $3,930.39 | -$619.18 | -15.8% |
| Richmond | $1,657.49 | -$449.79 | -27.1% |
| Fremantle | $1,542.91 | -$450.76 | -29.2% |
| Hawthorn | $4,201.41 | -$1,355.44 | -32.3% |
Interestingly Adelaide are at the top of the table. Tipped by many to miss the eight, the crows shocked almost all by making the finals, but were only a goal or a few seconds away from playing in a prelim. Brisbane also performed greater than expected and finished in 6th position as did Collingwood who finished 4th. St. Kilda would have been cruising on top of the table above until they lost consecutive matches to Essendon and North Melbourne at odds of 1.14 and 1.08 late in the season. The premiers Geelong, made the most profit.
On the other side of the table, reigning premiers Hawthorn looked like anything but. Sportpunter tipped them to finish outside the eight despite winning the premiership the year before, and we collected big against the hawks. On average in 2009 the hawks had 10 premiership players missing – that’s half a side, and impossible for any team to make up. Port Adelaide played below expectations, and Fremantle and Richmond would have to be the two most overrated teams in the competition. Interestingly third placed Western Bulldogs is on the lower half of the above table, but that was largely due to their 1.07 home loss to the West Coast Eagles.
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Two things of note with this chart.
1. Already trialled it & you would get smashed in any tipping competition, even if you factored in home advantage on the betting. LIne betting, though, is more interesting.
2. This US type betting shows us that the bookmaker has no reason to whine week in week out.
PS: I’m sure you’ll find the Bombers finished around 3rd place head to head.
Hi craig,
not sure what you mean by geting smashed in a tipping competition? but yes line betting is more interesting.
Craig sounds a bit like most footy followers I meet who can’t understand how I can bet against a raging hot favourite or against my own team. The concept of value betting as opposed to simply tipping winners in the office comp is just too foreign to them. Let’s hope it remains like that because the fewer that know the easier it is for us to keep winning 🙂
Yeah so true. The general public don’t seem to understand the concept of value at all. I recently tried to chat up some bird at a bar, and ended up talking about the EV of a coin flip given certain pay out odds. She couldn’t understand the theory of positive long term expectation.
She then accused me of being a problem gambler that needed help! LOL!
Note to self: Don’t talk to women about ‘gambling’.
haha, ahh Brett, a lesson I have also had to learn the hard way 🙂
Hi
Experimented with every game last season & hypothetically tipped the winner with the most money gained after using the same method as your table.
Ended with 114 out of 176, but the line betting was more successful.
I hope that explains things better 🙂
Interesting. As far as tipping goes. If you tipped every team that had greater than a 50% chance of success according to my probabilities last year you would have tipped 130 winners from 185 including finals.