We previously looked at College basketball totals betting and where and when it is profitable. Overall a 5.5% ROI was made, but interestingly some of the larger overlays failed to return a profit. Is this the case for over and unders betting? We will do the analysis and for unders it is shown below.
Unders
Prob #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
45.0% 50.0% 11 6 54.5% $769.13 $230.49 30.0%
50.0% 52.5% 85 41 48.2% $6,088.16 $80.40 1.3%
52.5% 55.0% 669 336 50.2% $47,145.71 $289.93 0.6%
55.0% 57.5% 909 478 52.6% $91,370.03 $4,283.37 4.7%
57.5% 60.0% 470 260 55.3% $69,179.40 $6,732.28 9.7%
60.0% 62.5% 217 116 53.5% $42,503.57 $2,304.61 5.4%
62.5% 65.0% 89 57 64.0% $21,640.37 $5,813.87 26.9%
65.0% 67.5% 44 24 54.5% $12,953.01 $1,323.67 10.2%
67.5% 70.0% 17 7 41.2% $5,827.47 -$1,291.60 -22.2%
70.0% 100.0% 21 10 47.6% $9,535.93 -$554.67 -5.8%
2532 1335 52.7% $307,012.76 $19,212.35 6.3%
Odds #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
1.50 1.75 3 2 66.7% $522.40 $165.41 31.7%
1.75 1.80 8 6 75.0% $1,180.72 $12.73 1.1%
1.80 1.85 45 25 55.6% $5,672.83 -$103.29 -1.8%
1.85 1.90 142 84 59.2% $19,391.43 $1,382.29 7.1%
1.90 1.95 1394 737 52.9% $170,504.54 $11,496.17 6.7%
1.95 2.00 616 310 50.3% $70,786.96 $2,243.25 3.2%
2.00 2.05 183 96 52.5% $21,408.05 $917.98 4.3%
2.05 2.10 52 28 53.8% $6,177.99 $1,007.72 16.3%
2.10 2.15 61 34 55.7% $7,117.94 $1,861.74 26.2%
2.15 5.00 28 13 46.4% $4,249.92 $228.35 5.4%
2532 1335 52.7% $307,012.76 $19,212.35 6.3%
Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.0% 7.5% 751 396 52.7% $48,955.11 $1,828.80 3.7%
7.5% 10.0% 547 265 48.4% $49,762.61 -$2,077.40 -4.2%
10.0% 12.5% 411 217 52.8% $48,148.36 $2,562.06 5.3%
12.5% 15.0% 265 149 56.2% $37,591.13 $4,461.25 11.9%
15.0% 17.5% 183 97 53.0% $31,005.04 $2,197.32 7.1%
17.5% 20.0% 134 76 56.7% $25,979.79 $3,464.28 13.3%
20.0% 22.5% 88 49 55.7% $19,068.66 $2,406.83 12.6%
22.5% 25.0% 45 33 73.3% $10,951.50 $5,159.05 47.1%
25.0% 30.0% 65 33 50.8% $18,741.66 $274.05 1.5%
30.0% 2000.0% 43 20 46.5% $16,808.89 -$1,063.91 -6.3%
2532 1335 52.7% $307,012.76 $19,212.35 6.3%
Av.Game Year #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 2 10 4 40.0% $1,410.87 -$461.15 -32.7%
2 3 32 15 46.9% $5,286.20 -$262.31 -5.0%
3 5 155 92 59.4% $25,168.08 $5,099.27 20.3%
5 7.5 201 94 46.8% $29,548.40 $1,031.00 3.5%
7.5 10 296 157 53.0% $38,875.95 $1,295.38 3.3%
10 15 593 325 54.8% $70,011.65 $6,900.72 9.9%
15 20 584 303 51.9% $64,891.48 $3,021.37 4.7%
20 25 435 224 51.5% $46,867.42 $372.83 0.8%
25 30 221 116 52.5% $23,870.04 $1,190.95 5.0%
30 1000 5 5 100.0% $1,082.69 $1,024.28 94.6%
2532 1335 52.7% $307,012.76 $19,212.35 6.3%
Ove
r 2/3rds of the betting is done on unders betting and results are greater than that of overs. A 6.3% ROI is made over all, which is incredibly good considering the large turnover from over 2500 bets.
What is most interesting is that higher probabilities along with associated higher overlays still didn’t make a profit. We are talking about a small sample size again of 100 bets, but it would seem the model has certain variables that are not accounted for, which could explain the large overlays not being successful. These could be, amongst other things, injuries or returning players.
The current College Basketball model does not factor players into account, and gamblers might well want to be aware of any changes to teams. Even so, a decent profit is made betting the predictions as we give them. I would suggest smaller bet amounts for larger overlays.
We’ll have a look at the unders bets tomorrow.
Sportpunter’s free College Basketball predictions are shown here
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