Supercoach and Dream Team for AFL football is a big passion of mine. So much so that I’m involved in several leagues that total an entry fee of over $1000. It’s high stakes fantasy and I feel as though I have an edge over some of my fellow competitors.
So from time to time, I will be giving out who I believe are big bargains and steals from round to round. Players who will increase in value and who you should pick up. And here they are listed below by position for Round 2:
Defenders
Nick Malceski, Syd (SC: $273.5k, DT: $242.8):
Had a shocking run with injury in his last two years with the swans, but looks to be back to his 2007 form where he averaged 21 possessions a game. His 25 disposals on the weekend against reigning minor premiers St. Kilda shows me that he’s back to his best.
Tadgh Kennelly, Syd (SC: $320.7k, DT: $204.7k):
Better value on dream team here, but fellow Sydneysider or Irishman Kennelly missed all of last year to be premiers for his Gaelic football team. He comes back here majorly underpriced, and 28 possessions in round 1 shows that he will only increase in value
Others: Alex Silvagnia (FRE), Matt Maguire (BRL), Beau Waters (WCE), Rick Ladson (HAW)
Midfielders
Michael Barlow, Fre (SC: $111.4k, DT: $105.8k):
If you haven’t got him in your side, then get him in now. He was prolific during the pre season and topped it up with a 33 possession 2 goal game on the weekend. He will go up massively.
Ryan Bastinac, Nth (SC: $94.2k, DT: $89.5k)
A very nice 23 disposals in the opening round, following up a very good preseason. The young midfield of the kangaroos are very impressive, it’s a pity of their lack of height and power and front and down back to match.
Others: Luke Shuey (WCE), Mitchell Banner (PTA), Todd Banfield (BRL), Ben Howlett (ESS)
Rucks
Mark Seaby, Syd (SC: $287.9k, DT: $226.7k)
With Jolly leaving the swans, Seaby now becomes the no. 1 ruckman for Sydney. This is massive for any fantasy footy follower, and his points in round 1 – 82 in both SC and DT) testify that he is good value. He should only go up in price.
Robert Warnock, CAR (SC: $132.2k, DT: $101.8l):
More value in dream team where he scored 85 points compared to 47 in supercoach. Even though, as second named ruckman for Carlton he will go up and up in value sitting nicely on your bench.
Others: Jackson Trengove (PTA), Brad Ottens (GEE)
Forwards:
Carl Peterson, Haw (SC: $100.2k, DT: $94.5k)
Stared in his first game for the hawks with 17 possessions and a goal. Ok sure it was against lowly Melbourne, but Peterson only played 57% of the game on the field. A little bit more and he should gain more points. But keep in mind, the hawks have to make way for Buddy and Bateman this week with Burgoyne lurking. Someone will have to make way
Eddie Betts, CAR (SC: $399.1k, DT: $274.3k)
Had a cracker of a pre season, and with no Judd for a while should rack up some more points. Betts has increased his average possessions every year since 2005, so signs are there that this could be his breakout year. 136/110 points last week showed us that he’s almost there.
Others: Patrick Dangerfield (ADE), Cameron Hitchcock (PTA), Chris Yarren (CAR), Hayden Ballantyne (FRE)
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Hi
This year, I’m trying a kind of bell curve to pick my teams with & settling on those no more than one standard deviation over the 2009 points total average instead of the actual average.
As usual, that doesn’t help when players pull out, but it’s a Melbourne Cup type contest & not the Stawell Gift.
Any update on this before the prices go up after this round, SP?
yep you have to make 2 trades this week, get rid of players who are going to go down in value and get players who are going to go up in value. You will say $50k ont he players going down, and gain $50k on the players going up, which gives you a $200k saving on the 2 trades.
I recommend you get a program called FF Genie. It is the best program by a country mile out there for AFL fantasy footy
Think I was kicking into the wind without FF Genie, SP! Impressive stuff. Cheers…
yep so in short, the popular players to get rid of and get in return are as follows:
Dean Cox, Mitch Clark and Darren Jolly -> Mark Seaby, Todd Goldstein and Brad Ottens
Ryan Hargrace for Ryan Schoenmakers
Kurt Tippett for Carl Peterson
Brent Harvey and Daniel Rich for Michael Barlow and Jared Brennan
well maybe not Jared Brennan (suspended)
I’m still inclined to trade him in as need Tippett out. Can select him up forward but is scoring like a midfielder (with his many tackles etc). Just need to cover him this week…
depends what your incentives are. If you want to win the whole competition dont get brennan. If you want to win your league, then whoever plays this week is irrelavent, so get him.
Don’t quite follow the ‘whole competition’ logic, JL – I’m a DT newby. Are you saying I’m missing an easy 40-50k uplift by not including someone who is playing this week and bound to rise in value? I’m anticipating Brennan to be a keeper. Perhaps my lack of a maths Doctorate is catching up with me 🙂
at the start of the year you have some guns, some mid range good players and some cash cows, or cheap as chips players who will do better. The goal is, by season end or close to, to have all guns in your side. The way you do that is trading out players who go down in value and trading in players who go up in value.
For example, player X, a cheap player is $100k bound to go up. He goes up to $300k mid year. Trade him for another $100k player bound to go up and you’ve made $200k. With that $200k you can trade one of your mid range players to a gun.
I have traded this week tippet for brown, because tipped will go down $25k, brown will go up $25k, and hence theres $50k saved. They might both be keepers, which means I dont save anything. But if one is injured, or starts playing bad and I need to trade them, then I’ve lost $50k. Tippet for me, is a mid range forward, not a chapman, brown or rewolt who is massive. You should aim for your keepers to be the absolute guns. Anyone else imo is a mid range who you will/should eventually upgrade if you have the cash to do so, and you get the cash by upgrading and trading the players who go up/down each week.
Ok with you now. Take Brown even if only for the short-term gain. He may well break down and won’t kick 7 every week but you will have benefitted regardless. Cheers Jono…
Any suggestions for a Riewoldt trade, Jono? Should I go high – Rioli, Brennan (not him again!), Higgins; or low – Duncan, Gwilt etc…
it depends on how your forward line it looking. You really want 7 forwards ( and all players on the field) who are going to score well. At the end of the season you want all your mid range players upgraded to top range players. So there are several ways you can do that.
Upgrade a mid to a top range now if you have extra money in the bank or downgrade a mid to someone who will grow in price (usually first year players) to get you the money for the updade to come.
So in short, you can trade rewoldt for a star like Brown, Brennan, Chapman, O’Keefe, Higgins, Rioli (note that Brennan and Rioli should also increase in price), or downgrade him to get extra cash for players like Podsaidly and Rockliff (given the get picked the next 2-3 games), or Peterson or Duncan.
Personally, and I dont mean say this just because I’m a hawks fan, Rioli played a little in the midfield and still looked a little unfit, this will improve, so he will go up in price and be a star. Peterson has improved with every game and is well worth a short priced favourite – hopefully you had him last week because he went up $60k to $80k for DT/SC.
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