Sportpunter’s model for NRL has been going since 2003, and since that time we have managed to make over 10% ROI betting on head to head. We’ve talked a bit about the favourite long shot bias in the sport, both last year and this year, where betting at odds of 4.00 and above seem to be very profitable.
But the above was largely betting blind. The NRL model hasn’t gone the best in the last few years, however there may be a way to make a profit. Shown below is a table about how the model went in 2010, and whilst profits were hard to find, there was a small profit for odds above 4.00. It has to be noted however, than only on 9 occasions did this occur.
Odds #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.5 2 2 100% $243.28 $111.97 46%
1.5 1.75 10 7 70% $1,895.00 -$155.62 -8%
1.75 2 13 7 54% $1,703.13 -$148.62 -9%
2 2.5 28 9 32% $3,626.41 -$1,446.30 -40%
2.5 3 44 17 39% $5,767.91 -$1,203.54 -21%
3 4 27 8 30% $3,688.33 -$1,410.35 -38%
4 50 9 2 22% $1,513.51 $566.58 37%
133 52 39% $18,437.57 -$3,685.88 -20%
Conversely, over the past 3 years, major profits was made betting on matches where the odds were 4.00 and above. 71 bets seems to be substantial in this case, and it seems as tho there is a big bias there in the odds.
Odds #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.5 2 2 100% $243.28 $111.98 46%
1.5 1.75 16 11 69% $3,285.25 -$82.15 -3%
1.75 2 40 21 53% $5,513.55 -$344.06 -6%
2 2.5 95 35 37% $12,599.37 -$2,502.86 -20%
2.5 3 132 44 33% $17,273.47 -$3,265.60 -19%
3 4 91 25 27% $12,833.03 -$3,135.05 -24%
4 50 71 18 25% $12,316.61 $6,910.85 56%
447 156 35% $64,064.56 -$2,306.89 -4%
I’ll leave it up to you how you intend on betting it. Click here to view or subscribe to Sportpunter’s NRL model for 2011.
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