Could this year be one of the lowest scoring years in NHL history? Possibly, if pre season total scores are anything to go by. We have shown previously that pre season total scores are more closely correlated with the seasons average total scores than the previous seasons average. This analysis is shown here.
In fact the analysis as linked above shows that the average total score in the regular season is 0.47 goals lower than that years pre season. Shown in the table below are the average total scores for each regular season going back to 1989, and including the preseason total scores since 2005.
Season #Matches Av. Goals Pre Season
1989 909 7.42
1990 839 7.05
1991 844 7.09
1992 1008 7.35
1993 1092 6.61
1994 690 6.14
1995 1176 6.44
1996 1066 5.97
1997 1066 5.43
1998 1107 5.41
1999 1148 5.62
2000 1230 5.64
2001 1230 5.36
2002 1230 5.44
2003 1241 5.27
2004 0
2005 1215 6.17 6.31
2006 1228 5.90 6.05
2007 1220 5.57 5.75
2008 1216 5.83 5.85
2009 1213 5.69 5.64
2010 1228 5.59 5.80
2011 5.33
Note that since 1989 the average number of goals scored per match has steadily been decreasing, halted by a small upswing after the year off in 2005 when rules were changed to allow for more goals. Still, since 2005 the total number of goals has been steadily decreasing in the regular season. Last years average of 5.59 was only marginally higher than the previous lowest at 5.57 set in 2007.
But more interesting is the preseason average for 2011. At at average of only 5.33 goals per match, it is clearly the lowest we have seen; 0.31 goals per game lower than the previous lowest of 5.64 in 2009.
If our previous analysis is anything to go by, we could be set for an average regular season total score of up to 0.47 goals less than the preseason, in other words, an average of only 4.86 goals per match.
Our successful models have adjusted for this, and we look forward to the start of the season, hopefully making as many more profits this year as we have in the past.
To sign up to the Sportpunter NHL model or to view the prices click here. Our previous betting history going back to 2005 is available here.
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