The NFL season for 2012 has started round 1, with the first gameof round 2 set to start on Thursday between the Bears and the Packers
Once again Sportpunter will be offering our predictions for every game, and if previous years records are to go by, we should have another profitable year. Full results are shown here for our model: http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/nfl/ and these show that we recorded a 10% ROI profit betting the line and a 3.3% ROI profit betting the totals. In total over the two years we are up 5.5% ROI betting the line and 4.7% ROI betting the totals from about 400 bets each respectively.
But interesting is how the model goes throughout the year. Whilst we only have a small sample size of two years, it might be interesting to see how the profits come in round by round. Shown below is the breakup of betting and profits for line and totals betting per round, followed by a brief summary.
Totals by round:
Round #Bets $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 21 $3,686.66 $271.69 7%
2 20 $3,736.31 $222.76 6%
3 22 $4,018.32 $985.55 25%
4 26 $4,440.28 $22.13 0%
5 20 $4,483.59 $835.09 19%
6 18 $3,536.78 $1,723.92 49%
7 16 $2,623.10 $471.69 18%
8 22 $4,195.11 $1,545.20 37%
9 17 $2,690.18 -$59.33 -2%
10 20 $3,728.55 -$30.15 -1%
11 20 $3,118.52 -$900.60 -29%
12 23 $3,974.78 $188.16 5%
13 20 $4,541.04 -$45.61 -1%
14 23 $4,626.33 -$951.58 -21%
15 21 $3,912.09 $192.85 5%
16 24 $4,878.93 -$661.58 -14%
17 24 $4,546.24 -$398.22 -9%
18 6 $1,466.51 $606.19 41%
19 4 $850.94 -$850.94 -100%
20 3 $363.04 $98.94 27%
21 2 $343.09 -$14.93 -4%
Line betting by round:
Round #Bets $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 25 $5,424.49 -$874.15 -16%
2 26 $6,208.67 -$1,124.19 -18%
3 23 $6,165.07 $3,307.72 54%
4 24 $5,483.66 $516.78 9%
5 18 $4,044.36 -$493.76 -12%
6 14 $2,862.12 -$413.86 -14%
7 19 $5,127.53 -$1,281.66 -25%
8 23 $5,294.40 -$878.65 -17%
9 26 $6,011.70 -$364.78 -6%
10 24 $5,927.14 -$140.19 -2%
11 23 $5,578.47 $114.92 2%
12 25 $7,783.67 $2,285.07 29%
13 23 $4,783.85 $159.99 3%
14 25 $5,823.84 $2,008.39 34%
15 30 $9,870.81 -$304.22 -3%
16 27 $7,118.21 $1,299.82 18%
17 25 $7,955.86 $1,069.91 13%
18 5 $1,032.22 $658.64 64%
19 6 $1,443.51 $137.96 10%
20 3 $716.42 -$75.92 -11%
21 2 $574.25 $207.04 36%
Clearly it shows that totals betting seems to go well from the word go, round 1, and if anything swindles a little later in the season. The opposite is true of line betting. Despite some big wins in round 3, it has taken until about mid-way through the season to show nice profits. Of course as I said, this is only a very small sample size, and one shouldn’t look into it as gospel, but there is good reason why the model might struggle a little early on with player movements between teams.
Either way, hopefully we get around the same type of success that we have had as previous years for what is one of the most popular bet sports in the world.
Click here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/nfl/ to register your subscription for the upcoming 2012 season.
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