There has been a bit of talk about how on average the number of goals increases and decreases over the course of a season because of the ice conditions. We’ve had a look at all the data going back to 1989 and the results are interesting.
It is well documented that the number of goals scored in any match has been on the decline, and this is clearly showed in the graph below. The year 2005 saw an upward trend when the shootout was introduced as well as the league’s zero-tolerance policy on obstruction penalties.
This saw, as you can see in the graph below a significant increase in the number of goals per match, but over time, the number has continued to decrease.
But what is more interesting is the total number of goals scored per match throughout each season. The graph below outlines this along with the corresponding table. Clearly it shows the lower scoring matches when it is the playoffs. However, before then in months 9 to 12 and 1 to 3, there is no real significant difference in total goals scored. Some people might be able to see a pattern in that months 9 and 10 as well as months 1 and 2 are higher than months 11 and 12, but the difference I believe, is minimal. The amount of matches going over 5 and 5.5 in the lower months of November and December is only around 1-2% less than the other months.
Perhaps there is something small in it, but personally I believe that aside from playoffs, the number of goals scored throughout the season is relatively constant.
| Month | Matches | Av. Total | Over 5 | over 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 830 | 5.90 | 62.7% | 50.7% |
| 10 | 3538 | 5.95 | 62.4% | 52.1% |
| 11 | 3916 | 5.81 | 60.8% | 50.0% |
| 12 | 3941 | 5.87 | 60.7% | 50.8% |
| 1 | 3976 | 5.85 | 61.2% | 51.4% |
| 2 | 3617 | 5.92 | 61.6% | 52.2% |
| 3 | 4540 | 5.82 | 60.5% | 50.7% |
| 4 | 2916 | 5.62 | 57.2% | 46.8% |
| 5 | 780 | 5.52 | 56.7% | 45.0% |
| 6 | 120 | 4.96 | 45.0% | 32.5% |
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