The AFL season has finished for 2014 and the mighty hawks have once again reigned supreme. At the start of the year, we had them as massive favourites to win and the big overlay came home.
But line betting was our major market this year, and it produced a significant profit like previous years. Over the course of the year we had 146 bets on the line for 88 wins. That resulted in a 7.7% return on investment per bet. Whilst this is down on our long term average of 12.5% covering 10 years, it is still a very handy profit for the year, and our bet on Hawthorn in the grand final capped off what has been a very enjoyable season.
So what teams were the main winners and what were the main culprits. The table below might surprise you.
| Team | #BetsFor | $BetFor | $ProfitFor | #BetsAgainst | $BetAgainst | $ProfitAgainst | Total Profit | Total %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Kilda | 10 | $2,402.74 | $1,162.99 | 4 | $672.92 | $634.27 | $1,797.26 | 58.4% |
| Richmond | 15 | $3,404.06 | $1,108.36 | 2 | $429.24 | $364.44 | $1,472.80 | 38.4% |
| Collingwood | 3 | $416.28 | $76.82 | 9 | $1,646.49 | $1,243.79 | $1,320.61 | 64.0% |
| West Coast | 9 | $1,680.65 | $164.25 | 7 | $1,451.03 | $798.09 | $962.34 | 30.7% |
| Melbourne | 5 | $961.24 | $559.63 | 11 | $2,067.17 | $284.81 | $844.44 | 27.9% |
| Gw Sydney | 6 | $852.12 | $330.41 | 7 | $1,815.55 | $337.41 | $667.82 | 25.0% |
| Gold Coast | 3 | $306.47 | $122.94 | 14 | $2,371.23 | $87.93 | $210.87 | 7.9% |
| Sydney | 5 | $600.56 | $231.31 | 14 | $3,160.96 | -$103.54 | $127.77 | 3.4% |
| North Melbourne | 12 | $3,118.33 | $575.51 | 6 | $1,047.47 | -$512.57 | $62.94 | 1.5% |
| Western Bulldogs | 12 | $2,367.93 | -$454.99 | 3 | $550.31 | $497.48 | $42.50 | 1.5% |
| Fremantle | 8 | $1,202.04 | $41.14 | 10 | $2,011.40 | -$5.72 | $35.42 | 1.1% |
| Adelaide | 12 | $2,257.65 | -$148.66 | 1 | $122.14 | $116.03 | -$32.63 | -1.4% |
| Geelong | 6 | $969.50 | -$474.00 | 9 | $1,659.92 | $434.91 | -$39.09 | -1.5% |
| Hawthorn | 17 | $3,748.99 | -$252.32 | 2 | $294.52 | $62.22 | -$190.10 | -4.7% |
| Carlton | 7 | $1,577.38 | -$84.64 | 8 | $1,117.28 | -$129.54 | -$214.18 | -7.9% |
| Brisbane | 4 | $710.77 | -$350.44 | 13 | $2,560.84 | -$443.60 | -$794.04 | -24.3% |
| Essendon | 6 | $863.72 | -$231.84 | 9 | $2,278.68 | -$631.48 | -$863.32 | -27.5% |
| Port Adelaide | 6 | $1,105.90 | -$169.77 | 17 | $3,289.15 | -$828.26 | -$998.04 | -22.7% |
On top of the list is wooden spooners St. Kilda. We backed them 10 times at the line each of the 4 times we bet against them they lost. In total 14 bets involving the Saints made us a very handy 58% ROI. Most of the bets were early in the season, when the saints were not winning matches, but covering lines.
We heavily favoured Richmond this year with 15 bets for and only 2 against, for a 38% ROI, whilst we loved backing against the pies with 9 bets against and only 3 for.
It took the model to account for Port Adelaide’s resurgence. We backed against them 17 times which produced a few loses. In fact we backed against them in their first 6 matches of the year. The two other points of interest were the two grand finalists. We were heavily backing against the Swans, and came out slightly in front, whilst we also heavily backed the Hawks and finished slightly down.
So all in total, it’s been a great betting year, and I am looking forward to 2015 already (for another Hawthorn premiership! 😉 )
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