Shown below is a bit more NBA analysis with regards to line betting for away and home teams.
This is the models suggested bets over the past few years. “AwayLine” refers to betting on the away team at the following line (the line for the away team), whilst “HomeLine” refers to betting on the home team at the line (the away line).
Confusing yes, but it just means betting the home or away team.
There’s not a lot to make of it which is a shame, higher prices overlays on away favourites seem to have done particularly good.
| Line | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50 | -5 | 405 | 181 | 44.7% | $74,670.72 | -$9,860.37 | -13.2% |
| -5 | -2 | 441 | 228 | 51.7% | $77,170.80 | -$3,040.56 | -3.9% |
| -2 | 0 | 220 | 119 | 54.1% | $40,907.01 | $3,896.33 | 9.5% |
| 0 | 1 | 748 | 748 | 100.0% | $- | $- | #DIV/0! |
| 1 | 3 | 364 | 186 | 51.1% | $61,225.07 | -$3,924.02 | -6.4% |
| 3 | 5 | 524 | 299 | 57.1% | $91,641.80 | $7,304.90 | 8.0% |
| 5 | 7 | 584 | 316 | 54.1% | $105,507.33 | -$2,917.56 | -2.8% |
| 7 | 9 | 486 | 242 | 49.8% | $94,316.71 | -$7,744.10 | -8.2% |
| 9 | 12 | 482 | 262 | 54.4% | $100,812.71 | $3,491.41 | 3.5% |
| 12 | 50 | 300 | 146 | 48.7% | $67,040.16 | -$424.36 | -0.6% |
| 4554 | 2727 | 59.9% | $713,292.32 | -$13,218.34 | -1.9% | ||
| AwayLine | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| -50 | -5 | 144 | 64 | 44.4% | $20,687.88 | -$1,596.41 | -7.7% |
| -5 | -2 | 223 | 115 | 51.6% | $37,883.63 | -$476.98 | -1.3% |
| -2 | 0 | 118 | 65 | 55.1% | $21,133.10 | $1,541.78 | 7.3% |
| 0 | 1 | 374 | 374 | 100.0% | $- | $- | #DIV/0! |
| 1 | 3 | 197 | 101 | 51.3% | $33,964.80 | -$1,703.13 | -5.0% |
| 3 | 5 | 333 | 180 | 54.1% | $60,577.68 | $1,167.36 | 1.9% |
| 5 | 7 | 420 | 217 | 51.7% | $82,932.90 | -$4,464.32 | -5.4% |
| 7 | 9 | 355 | 176 | 49.6% | $76,077.98 | -$4,987.75 | -6.6% |
| 9 | 12 | 349 | 187 | 53.6% | $82,160.84 | $1,070.51 | 1.3% |
| 12 | 50 | 229 | 117 | 51.1% | $56,589.09 | $1,016.77 | 1.8% |
| 2742 | 1596 | 58.2% | $472,007.91 | -$8,432.17 | -1.8% | ||
| HomeLine | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| -50 | -5 | 261 | 117 | 44.8% | $53,982.85 | -$8,263.96 | -15.3% |
| -5 | -2 | 218 | 113 | 51.8% | $39,287.17 | -$2,563.58 | -6.5% |
| -2 | 0 | 102 | 54 | 52.9% | $19,773.91 | $2,354.55 | 11.9% |
| 0 | 1 | 374 | 374 | 100.0% | $- | $- | #DIV/0! |
| 1 | 3 | 167 | 85 | 50.9% | $27,260.28 | -$2,220.89 | -8.1% |
| 3 | 5 | 191 | 119 | 62.3% | $31,064.12 | $6,137.54 | 19.8% |
| 5 | 7 | 164 | 99 | 60.4% | $22,574.42 | $1,546.76 | 6.9% |
| 7 | 9 | 131 | 66 | 50.4% | $18,238.73 | -$2,756.35 | -15.1% |
| 9 | 12 | 133 | 75 | 56.4% | $18,651.87 | $2,420.89 | 13.0% |
| 12 | 50 | 71 | 29 | 40.8% | $10,451.07 | -$1,441.13 | -13.8% |
| 1812 | 1131 | 62.4% | $241,284.41 | -$4,786.17 | -2.0% | ||
| AwayLine | Overlay>=17.5% | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| -50 | -5 | 35 | 21 | 60.0% | $9,055.66 | $1,697.94 | 18.8% |
| -5 | -2 | 80 | 42 | 52.5% | $22,606.92 | $745.54 | 3.3% |
| -2 | 0 | 51 | 28 | 54.9% | $13,970.46 | $1,600.46 | 11.5% |
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | $- | $- | #DIV/0! |
| 1 | 3 | 73 | 35 | 47.9% | $21,704.58 | -$877.38 | -4.0% |
| 3 | 5 | 132 | 76 | 57.6% | $40,295.24 | $3,799.76 | 9.4% |
| 5 | 7 | 214 | 105 | 49.1% | $61,731.76 | -$3,286.60 | -5.3% |
| 7 | 9 | 196 | 99 | 50.5% | $58,811.50 | -$2,352.06 | -4.0% |
| 9 | 12 | 195 | 100 | 51.3% | $64,458.72 | -$746.31 | -1.2% |
| 12 | 50 | 133 | 71 | 53.4% | $45,018.08 | $2,269.83 | 5.0% |
| 1109 | 577 | 52.0% | $337,652.91 | $2,851.19 | 0.8% | ||
| HomeLine | Overlay>=17.5% | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| -50 | -5 | 121 | 55 | 45.5% | $38,137.68 | -$5,483.86 | -14.4% |
| -5 | -2 | 89 | 42 | 47.2% | $26,338.09 | -$2,438.52 | -9.3% |
| -2 | 0 | 41 | 27 | 65.9% | $13,108.17 | $3,846.26 | 29.3% |
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | $- | $- | #DIV/0! |
| 1 | 3 | 64 | 29 | 45.3% | $17,547.38 | -$1,087.02 | -6.2% |
| 3 | 5 | 68 | 43 | 63.2% | $19,738.55 | $5,543.05 | 28.1% |
| 5 | 7 | 42 | 24 | 57.1% | $12,244.18 | $1,502.44 | 12.3% |
| 7 | 9 | 38 | 17 | 44.7% | $9,911.26 | -$1,321.39 | -13.3% |
| 9 | 12 | 36 | 20 | 55.6% | $9,077.54 | $1,335.39 | 14.7% |
| 12 | 50 | 18 | 8 | 44.4% | $4,762.50 | -$465.66 | -9.8% |
| 517 | 265 | 51.3% | $150,865.36 | $1,430.70 | 0.9% |
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I love this analyses!
And by the way – analysis of NBA over/under would be great as Unders probably outperform Overs.