NRL betting has got off to a good start, thanks to Manly getting up at 3.77,
here’s an analysis of the model:
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Prob | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.2 | 22 | 3 | 13.6% | $867.49 | $332.36 | 38.3% |
0.2 | 0.3 | 122 | 27 | 22.1% | $9,597.37 | $898.42 | 9.4% |
0.3 | 0.4 | 242 | 72 | 29.8% | $26,368.45 | $8,620.20 | 32.7% |
0.4 | 0.5 | 383 | 147 | 38.4% | $51,333.72 | $9,164.64 | 17.9% |
0.5 | 0.6 | 261 | 107 | 41.0% | $47,838.49 | -$5,022.92 | -10.5% |
0.6 | 0.7 | 132 | 67 | 50.8% | $29,086.76 | -$2,830.09 | -9.7% |
0.7 | 0.8 | 56 | 36 | 64.3% | $16,182.56 | $2,043.48 | 12.6% |
0.8 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 57.1% | $9,053.09 | -$1,025.04 | -11.3% |
TOTAL | 1239 | 471 | 38.0% | $190,327.92 | $12,181.06 | 6.4% | |
Odds | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
1 | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | $1,786.28 | $272.24 | 15.2% |
1.2 | 1.4 | 15 | 10 | 66.7% | $4,330.93 | -$161.75 | -3.7% |
1.4 | 1.6 | 37 | 25 | 67.6% | $8,415.76 | -$295.73 | -3.5% |
1.6 | 1.8 | 68 | 35 | 51.5% | $13,373.83 | -$3,871.09 | -28.9% |
1.8 | 2 | 98 | 52 | 53.1% | $16,042.58 | $134.20 | 0.8% |
2 | 2.5 | 248 | 105 | 42.3% | $39,243.61 | -$1.95 | 0.0% |
2.5 | 3 | 308 | 115 | 37.3% | $44,412.42 | $1,188.48 | 2.7% |
3 | 500 | 462 | 126 | 27.3% | $62,722.52 | $14,916.66 | 23.8% |
TOTAL | 1239 | 471 | 38.0% | $190,327.92 | $12,181.06 | 6.4% | |
Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
0 | 0.1 | 235 | 105 | 44.7% | $19,437.49 | $44.17 | 0.2% |
0.1 | 0.2 | 357 | 151 | 42.3% | $43,020.19 | -$645.09 | -1.5% |
0.2 | 0.3 | 233 | 84 | 36.1% | $35,131.41 | -$1,293.81 | -3.7% |
0.3 | 0.4 | 130 | 43 | 33.1% | $24,420.98 | -$1,524.04 | -6.2% |
0.4 | 0.5 | 101 | 33 | 32.7% | $21,179.11 | $383.38 | 1.8% |
0.5 | 0.6 | 62 | 18 | 29.0% | $14,352.58 | -$199.45 | -1.4% |
0.6 | 1 | 74 | 22 | 29.7% | $19,143.15 | $4,146.06 | 21.7% |
1 | 500 | 47 | 15 | 31.9% | $13,643.01 | $11,269.84 | 82.6% |
TOTAL | 1239 | 471 | 38.0% | $190,327.92 | $12,181.06 | 6.4% | |
Home | |||||||
Prob | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
0 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | $55.64 | -$55.64 | -100.0% |
0.2 | 0.3 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | $1,442.73 | $349.55 | 24.2% |
0.3 | 0.4 | 57 | 17 | 29.8% | $6,390.00 | $382.76 | 6.0% |
0.4 | 0.5 | 127 | 63 | 49.6% | $16,048.84 | $7,170.37 | 44.7% |
0.5 | 0.6 | 127 | 52 | 40.9% | $23,222.42 | -$4,133.22 | -17.8% |
0.6 | 0.7 | 90 | 52 | 57.8% | $19,646.02 | $938.90 | 4.8% |
0.7 | 0.8 | 37 | 23 | 62.2% | $10,371.37 | -$393.92 | -3.8% |
0.8 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 57.1% | $5,178.72 | -$1,039.82 | -20.1% |
TOTAL | 474 | 221 | 46.6% | $82,355.73 | $3,218.97 | 3.9% | |
Odds | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
1 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | $1,237.72 | $173.50 | 14.0% |
1.2 | 1.4 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% | $3,426.61 | -$400.60 | -11.7% |
1.4 | 1.6 | 27 | 18 | 66.7% | $5,949.01 | -$75.81 | -1.3% |
1.6 | 1.8 | 47 | 27 | 57.4% | $8,666.31 | -$1,116.28 | -12.9% |
1.8 | 2 | 55 | 31 | 56.4% | $9,920.17 | $988.24 | 10.0% |
2 | 2.5 | 124 | 57 | 46.0% | $21,597.78 | $764.20 | 3.5% |
2.5 | 3 | 111 | 51 | 45.9% | $16,887.13 | $2,792.08 | 16.5% |
3 | 500 | 96 | 28 | 29.2% | $14,671.00 | $93.64 | 0.6% |
TOTAL | 474 | 221 | 46.6% | $82,355.73 | $3,218.97 | 3.9% | |
Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
0 | 0.1 | 100 | 50 | 50.0% | $10,548.51 | -$306.22 | -2.9% |
0.1 | 0.2 | 153 | 81 | 52.9% | $22,379.53 | $1,694.53 | 7.6% |
0.2 | 0.3 | 82 | 40 | 48.8% | $14,761.85 | $2,113.08 | 14.3% |
0.3 | 0.4 | 53 | 23 | 43.4% | $11,748.33 | $613.89 | 5.2% |
0.4 | 0.5 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | $8,367.51 | $1,568.84 | 18.7% |
0.5 | 0.6 | 22 | 9 | 40.9% | $6,047.36 | $1,671.31 | 27.6% |
0.6 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | $5,914.82 | -$5,034.76 | -85.1% |
1 | 500 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | $2,400.34 | $598.30 | 24.9% |
TOTAL | 473 | 220 | 46.5% | $82,168.23 | $2,918.97 | 3.6% | |
Away | |||||||
Prob | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
0 | 0.2 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | $811.84 | $388.00 | 47.8% |
0.2 | 0.3 | 102 | 21 | 20.6% | $8,154.64 | $548.87 | 6.7% |
0.3 | 0.4 | 185 | 55 | 29.7% | $19,978.45 | $8,237.44 | 41.2% |
0.4 | 0.5 | 256 | 84 | 32.8% | $35,284.88 | $1,994.27 | 5.7% |
0.5 | 0.6 | 134 | 55 | 41.0% | $24,616.07 | -$889.70 | -3.6% |
0.6 | 0.7 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | $9,440.75 | -$3,768.99 | -39.9% |
0.7 | 0.8 | 19 | 13 | 68.4% | $5,811.19 | $2,437.41 | 41.9% |
0.8 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | $3,874.37 | $14.79 | 0.4% |
TOTAL | 765 | 250 | 32.7% | $107,972.19 | $8,962.09 | 8.3% | |
Odds | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
1 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | $548.56 | $98.74 | 18.0% |
1.2 | 1.4 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | $904.32 | $238.85 | 26.4% |
1.4 | 1.6 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | $2,466.74 | -$219.91 | -8.9% |
1.6 | 1.8 | 21 | 8 | 38.1% | $4,707.53 | -$2,754.82 | -58.5% |
1.8 | 2 | 43 | 21 | 48.8% | $6,122.41 | -$854.04 | -13.9% |
2 | 2.5 | 124 | 48 | 38.7% | $17,645.83 | -$766.15 | -4.3% |
2.5 | 3 | 197 | 64 | 32.5% | $27,525.28 | -$1,603.60 | -5.8% |
3 | 500 | 366 | 98 | 26.8% | $48,051.52 | $14,823.02 | 30.8% |
TOTAL | 765 | 250 | 32.7% | $107,972.19 | $8,962.09 | 8.3% | |
Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
0 | 0.1 | 135 | 55 | 40.7% | $8,888.99 | $350.39 | 3.9% |
0.1 | 0.2 | 204 | 70 | 34.3% | $20,640.66 | -$2,339.63 | -11.3% |
0.2 | 0.3 | 151 | 44 | 29.1% | $20,369.57 | -$3,406.89 | -16.7% |
0.3 | 0.4 | 77 | 20 | 26.0% | $12,672.65 | -$2,137.92 | -16.9% |
0.4 | 0.5 | 66 | 19 | 28.8% | $12,811.61 | -$1,185.46 | -9.3% |
0.5 | 0.6 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | $8,305.23 | -$1,870.77 | -22.5% |
0.6 | 1 | 54 | 21 | 38.9% | $13,228.33 | $9,180.82 | 69.4% |
1 | 500 | 47 | 15 | 31.9% | $13,643.01 | $11,269.84 | 82.6% |

How many seasons does this cover?
The results pages show 8 seasons and 892 h2h bets but this analysis has 1239 bets?
Actually, on closer examination of the history I find it doesn’t add up. I had deducted the current season’s 8 bets from the 900 total but if I add the 9 completed seasons I get 1192 !