The 2014 NFL season starts tonight, and Sportpunter are releasing our models picks once again. To become a subscriber, click the link here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/nfl/
But first, we will do an analysis of the last 4 years of betting. Firstly, totals betting.
As shown on the betting history on the page listed above, we have managed to make 5.9% ROI from totals betting. Note that all odds are based on closing prices, so there is even a greater scope for potential profit betting early if you can get a good approximation of the weather.
But the good thing about totals betting is that each year since 2010 we have made a healthy profit. We’ve even done some analysis on how the model has gone by round. Shown below is the amount bet, profited and %ROI per round.
| Round | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40 | $7,567.94 | $590.84 | 7.8% |
| 2 | 36 | $6,540.62 | -$1,102.89 | -16.9% |
| 3 | 45 | $8,571.66 | $783.07 | 9.1% |
| 4 | 42 | $7,301.09 | -$130.90 | -1.8% |
| 5 | 37 | $7,510.15 | -$32.99 | -0.4% |
| 6 | 35 | $6,667.26 | $1,856.42 | 27.8% |
| 7 | 34 | $6,771.30 | -$175.82 | -2.6% |
| 8 | 44 | $7,385.41 | $2,484.68 | 33.6% |
| 9 | 41 | $6,916.74 | $1,822.45 | 26.3% |
| 10 | 41 | $7,895.45 | -$682.15 | -8.6% |
| 11 | 40 | $7,319.58 | $535.09 | 7.3% |
| 12 | 45 | $8,568.58 | $2,065.94 | 24.1% |
| 13 | 41 | $8,253.68 | $1,051.91 | 12.7% |
| 14 | 44 | $8,321.13 | -$1,390.32 | -16.7% |
| 15 | 45 | $7,841.24 | -$947.60 | -12.1% |
| 16 | 48 | $9,450.76 | $961.80 | 10.2% |
| 17 | 42 | $7,758.15 | $805.37 | 10.4% |
| 18 | 12 | $2,519.27 | $479.60 | 19.0% |
| 19 | 9 | $1,668.28 | -$844.70 | -50.6% |
| 20 | 5 | $738.37 | -$51.59 | -7.0% |
| 21 | 2 | $343.09 | -$14.93 | -4.4% |
The first 5 rounds have been about break even for totals betting, but after that, a very handy 8% ROI has been made. I’ll leave it up to the individuals if you want to wait till round 6 to start betting, because after all, a simple round by round analysis like this is a little cherry picking. So either way, the totals model looks to be right on target, and hopefully in 2014 we can gain just as much advantage betting it.
Line betting is a little different, despite making 2% ROI in the 4 years, and 7.6% ROI last year, it hasn’t been as smooth sailing as the totals, with a disaster year in 2012. That said, one might still be able to get some value of it when looking at the round by round analysis shown below in the table.
| Round | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50 | $11,476.71 | -$836.07 | -7.3% |
| 2 | 51 | $12,095.77 | $1,110.50 | 9.2% |
| 3 | 48 | $11,939.57 | $2,847.84 | 23.9% |
| 4 | 46 | $11,065.74 | -$866.87 | -7.8% |
| 5 | 38 | $9,083.84 | -$1,320.54 | -14.5% |
| 6 | 36 | $7,649.52 | $259.74 | 3.4% |
| 7 | 41 | $10,028.64 | $1,009.24 | 10.1% |
| 8 | 45 | $10,413.66 | -$2,503.56 | -24.0% |
| 9 | 49 | $11,301.86 | -$1,610.48 | -14.2% |
| 10 | 47 | $11,673.53 | -$856.37 | -7.3% |
| 11 | 46 | $11,635.80 | $1,050.90 | 9.0% |
| 12 | 45 | $13,671.77 | $2,148.28 | 15.7% |
| 13 | 49 | $11,225.97 | $119.22 | 1.1% |
| 14 | 48 | $10,118.35 | $374.17 | 3.7% |
| 15 | 56 | $17,417.82 | -$900.23 | -5.2% |
| 16 | 53 | $12,641.32 | $891.51 | 7.1% |
| 17 | 51 | $13,985.78 | $1,461.80 | 10.5% |
| 18 | 12 | $2,079.33 | $711.97 | 34.2% |
| 19 | 11 | $2,591.68 | $803.41 | 31.0% |
| 20 | 7 | $1,536.66 | -$118.68 | -7.7% |
| 21 | 2 | $574.25 | $207.04 | 36.1% |
This table shows that the first 10 rounds have recorded a 2.6% loss, whilst from rounds 11 to the end of season, a 6.9% ROI profit has been made. I don’t believe that this is just a coincidence, as the model gets smarter, and probably takes a little while to rate the teams as the season progresses.
Of course we are cherry picking a little here, but clearly history suggests that later in the season has produced better results that early for line betting.
Either way, hopefully the good trends with totals betting, and last years line betting will continue in 2014. Make sure you visit the Sportpunter NFL webpage http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/nfl/ for all the subscription information, betting history and analysis, and the important calculator which is essential for betting the NFL.
Release times for the NFL will be at this stage 9pm AEDT before each days play (subject to debate in the forum)
Cheers and best of punting luck
Jonathan Lowe
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