Introduction to Sports Gambling

By Jonathan Lowe

Punt: To lay a bet against the bank. To gamble. To take a risk in the hope of gaining an advantage or a benefit.

Investment

Punting and gambling is naturally associated with risk and the potential to make profits or losses. The desirability to win money with little work has of long been some interest. Gambling in Australia is the second biggest industry in terms of cash turnover. But the question lies, who is the money turning over to?

The obvious answer is of course the bookmakers and casino’s themselves. They are a business and for them to survive they take more money off you then you take off them.

So is there a chance that you can make long term gains over the bookmakers?

The answer is yes and the key ingredient is not to bet with your heart, but to bet with your brain (or at least someone else’s brain!).

Society has an interesting acceptance or nonacceptance of gambling. Poker machine’s have a bad reputation as they tend to sucker in zombies who play only for the next win around the corner. Despite being in the same venue, table games such as blackjack have a positive swing. Society views these as exciting and enjoyable.

Tattslotto is often manufactured into the budget of families regardless of its minute possibilities and is far from frowned on. Whilst horseracing is either scoffed at some as being "not a sport", part of the lifestyle for many highrollers and a good nights entertainment for others.

But there is also much socially acceptable gambling in society today. Insurance is one of these. By paying a certain amount each year you can insure your car and if the off chance that you car is smashed, you win back the money leaving you were you started off. It’s method parallels gambling. Paying a little at a time and then perhaps one day you will win.

Of course insurance companies are like bookmakers. They have to run a business so on average, they take more money off you then you will get back. The only advantage of insurance is peace of mind.

The stockmarket is another form of gambling. By buying shares you are wagering if you believe the company will grow and be supreme over it’s competition. The same way you might back a horse to defeat it’s competition. In fact the stockmarket is so close to gambling, it’s uncanny why one could scorn gambling whilst owning shares.

When buying shares you can by one or two cent shares and take a large risk in the hope of making a quick large sum. Typical to gambling on one outcome with a large proportion of you bank account.

Similarly you could buy reliable large companies with little risk in the hope that they will increase gradually. This in an investment. And this is the only way how one can gamble on sports and maintain a possible profit: Long term investment.

Betting on sports takes another slant. It is the opportunity for people to put their money where their mouth is, back their favourite team and maybe make watching the game that little more exciting. And this is precisely the reason that by using your brain you can make money by punting with limited risk. Looking at another slant, this is how:

"Bookmakers determine their odds not based on the actual probability of a team winning, but by what the general public believes the probability of that team is to win"

The difference is slight and subtle but is a very important difference. As most punters gamble with their heart they are biased in their prediction and this will reflect in the odds.

The only way to make a profit from gambling is using mathematics. By using statistical models one can directly determine with accuracy the probabilities of a team or player winning a match and establish whether or not we have an advantage over the bookmakers.

There are many websites on the internet claiming that they can make you profits. But none of these are mathematically based. I, Jonathan Lowe, have credentials that none of these other web pages would have.

I studied at Monash University, Melbourne which is widely recognised as amongst the top two universities in Australia. I completed a degree with a double major in Psychology and Statistics. I continued with an honours degree in Statistics and also completed Masters in the same area.

Currently I am undertaking a PhD in sports statistics at Swinburne University, Melbourne.

I have seen many other webpages claim that they have a ranking system that is mathematically based. But maths doesn’t just involve pushing numbers. It involves complex models that have taken me years to master. Some of the statistical techniques used in my models are exponential smoothing and binary logistic regression. These two methods are essential if you are to properly rank and analyse a players performance. I encourage all to ask other "tipsters" on the net whether they use some methods.

So in conclusion, gambling with your brain, or at least other people’s brain is how you can make money by gambling. Gambling is of course the wrong word to use, I naturally prefer Investment.