Sportpunter

The Major League Baseball season is about to start and already we have futures predictions for the number of wins that every team will have. These are available below. Our baseball model has been going great guns, last year making 3.1% ROI h2h betting and 4.6% ROI betting totals. With nearly 1600 bets for the year, there is a lot of turnover in baseball because of the sheer number of games being played. Hence the potential for profits is massive. Full results are available here.

Predictions are generally given out around 5pm AEST, so it should suit most punters here and around the world.

To sign up to Sportpunter’s and Crdog’s MLB model or to view the prices click here.

Anaheim Angels 76.8

Baltimore Orioles 80.9

Boston Red Sox 103.4

Cleveland Indians 67.4

Chicago White Sox 81.6

Detroit Tigers 88.5

Kansas City Royals 66.9

Minnesota Twins 82.1

New York Yankees 90.4

Oakland Athletics 87.8

Seattle Mariners 72.1

Tampa Bay Devil Rays 84.2

Texas Rangers 90.1

Toronto Blue Jays 76.2

ATL 85.5

PHI 92.7

WAS 73.8

NYM 78.4

FLA 79.5

HOU 60.6

CHC 84.4

STL 87.8

CIN 88.3

MIL 80.3

PIT 70.6

SD 73.2

SF 91.0

ARI 77.6

COL 81.8

LA 79.0

AFL Football is back, and this Thursday kicks off the start of the AFL season with Carlton playing Richmond.

But of course, the big news is is that Sportpunter will once again be releasing top quality sports predictions for every single game. AFL is arguably Sportpunter’s best model and the results speak for themselves. As shown here, we have been predicting AFL since 1999 and have averaged 11.2% ROI. The last two years, and three of the last four years have averaged over 20% ROI. 2010 was the most profitable year since we started betting and so there is no reason why the results will not, once again, come in our favour.

Currently we have the season predictions up on the website with probability of premiership, final 4, final 8 and wooden spoon. We also believe we have a good grasp on the new team Gold Coast who enter the competition fresh this year.

If ever you are going to join up to a Sportpunter model, then the AFL model is the one! Even if you don’t understand anything about AFL football in Australia, simply just follow the bets as suggested and watch the profits come in.

To sign up or view the prices to Sportpunter’s AFL Model in 2011 click here.

Shown below is a full analysis of how the AFL Model has gone. It shows that betting on home teams does better than betting on teams playing away. It also seems to be profitable in all sorts of probability and odds ranges. Whats more, is that the greater the overlay, the greater the profit, with over 20% ROI being made when the overlay is greater than 40%. A minimum overlay of 7.5%, instead of the standard 5% could be a reasonable alternative.

NRL betting has got off to a good start, thanks to Manly getting up at 3.77,

here’s an analysis of the model:

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Sportpunter’s model for NRL has been going since 2003, and since that time we have managed to make over 10% ROI betting on head to head. We’ve talked a bit about the favourite long shot bias in the sport, both last year and this year, where betting at odds of 4.00 and above seem to be very profitable.

But the above was largely betting blind. The NRL model hasn’t gone the best in the last few years, however there may be a way to make a profit. Shown below is a table about how the model went in 2010, and whilst profits were hard to find, there was a small profit for odds above 4.00. It has to be noted however, than only on 9 occasions did this occur.

Conversely, over the past 3 years, major profits was made betting on matches where the odds were 4.00 and above. 71 bets seems to be substantial in this case, and it seems as tho there is a big bias there in the odds.

I’ll leave it up to you how you intend on betting it. Click here to view or subscribe to Sportpunter’s NRL model for 2011.

The NRL season for 2011 starts this weekend and Sportpunter will be providing the predictions once again.

But first, a little pre season analysis. We previously showed that there is a massive bias in odds against the outsiders, so much so that backing the large dogs in NRL proved to be very profitable over the years. So has this trend continued last year in 2010 or is the market adjusting for it?

Once again our analysis showed above, that backing dogs with odds of 4.00 or more had big profits despite only 11 times this occurring. Of the 116 times that the odds of a team were 2.5 or greater, a 13% ROI profit was made betting to win $1000.

Conversely, backing a team at 1.40 or less would have lost a punter 18% ROI on 33 bets, and backing all teams to win $1000 on odds of 1.65 or less would have lost the gambler $26,888 at -8% ROI.

So what is pretty clear, is that the bias is still there for NRL. Our only hope is that this trend continues and we have a good year with Sportpunter’s suggested bets!

Click here to view or subscribe to Sportpunter’s NRL model.

In previous articles we have looked at how well the new upgraded ATP model has done against certain probabilties and overlays. This analysis can be found linked on the right hand side of this page: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/tennis/

However another interesting piece of information is how well the model goes based on our injury ratings. Sportpunter’s tennis model has four injury ratings and they are as follows

SurfaceNoPlay – Player has not played on this particular surface in last 2 months

LowPlay – Player has not won a match (or played) in last 2 months

Retire – Player has recorded at least 2 retirements or withdrawals in last 2 months

LossRetire – Player has not won a match since last retirement or withdrawal

Based on suggested bets from back to 2005, we can see how the model goes when betting on games where one of the above scenarios occur.

Shown below are the results of the ATP model for betting on players with the above scanerios (1), against a player with the above scenarios (-1) or when both players have, or do not have, the injury conditions.

The findings are quite substantial. Betting on a player who has not played on the particular surface recently resulted in an 8.1% loss from 310 bets, whilst a 9% ROI gain was made when the suggested bet was the other way around.

Similarly, when betting on a player who has not won or played a match recently, a 16.8% ROI loss was made, as compared to a 9% ROI gain the other way around.

There was little difference in the variables Retire and LossRetire for both betting for or against the injured player.

So what does this mean? Well, all these variables are in the model, and hence the model has accurately calculated the value of each one. However there still seems to be a bias there.

My conclusion is that the odds are biased in that they do not much enough for when a player has not played for a certain amount of time, or are “first up” in the last 2 months on a particular surface.

Previously we talked about how the new upgraded ATP model did based on certain probabilities and overlays. This analysis is shown here.

Today we shall show you how the ATP model goes for favourites based on overlay. Shown below are tables, each one for when a bet is suggested for certain probabilities. We can have a look at the overlays of these occurrences and judge based on this, what minimum overlay we should be using.

What is shown is that quite clearly, the model does very well when it has a player as a favourite. From the 4383 bets, it has made 5.7% ROI. What is equally good, is that there seems to be no minimum overlay, and hence, the 5% minimum that is usually used at Sportpunter will still apply.

So in theory, for all favourites as determined by Sportpunter, bet with a minimum of 5% overlay.