Sportpunter

Centrebet are the first to give out over/under odds and I like the look of the unders here. 1.90 available for under 170.5 points. Now that might sound like a small total, but both clubs have by far the best two defences in the competition. When they played in round 14, only 176 points were scored, and yet that was played in the nice indoor conditions of the docklands.

But this is outdoor, and the forecast for Saturday isn’t looking that great. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne will have this Saturday experience: “Scattered showers and the chance of thunderstorms with hail. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 40 km/h”

So a windy, possibly wet day, which all goes for a low scoring contest. Not only that, but Geelongs last three matches against Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle ranked in total scores of 167, 178 and 148. Average 164. Whilst St. Kilda’s last four matches against Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Melbourne and North Melbourne scored in total 113, 132, 181 and 123 points respectively. Average 137

Looks to me to be value. Expect the odds to come in if the weather predictions become more likely to be true.

Whilst sportpunter have not come up with any specific predictions for the Brownlow medal, one of our regular clients, Flosso has come up with his predictions which you can download in the forum. He’s done pretty good in past years, and this year he reckons Ablett will take out the crown.

Not a very adventurous prediction, but the probability that he suggests means a significant overlay. I managed to get on with odds of $3.10 at betfair, and the odds have come in a bit since.

Check out flosso’s predictions here:

http://www.sportpunter.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5196