The NRL season is fast approaching us, and Sportpunter are once again releasing their player based model . Since 2014, we have had excellent results based on the player based model , with head to head bets making 7.5% POT from 576 bets, whilst line betting making 7.0% POT from 626 bets.
We’ve also decided to analyse betting results based on odds as how it goes either side of the state of origin.
Shown below is how the model has gone since 2014 for different odds for head to head betting. As you can see, when the odds are less than 1.6, the model has actually made a 3.2% POT loss. However, with only 161 bets, this is a small sample size. Perhaps there is something in it? I’ll leave that to the individual. Either way, a 15.4% POT betting on underdogs has been since 2014 with 315 bets, which is very handy indeed.
Interestingly, the h2h model seems to work better betting on favourites the week before and after origin. Betting favourites either side of origin has needed 17.6% POT from 45 bets, whilst betting on underdogs has lost 21% POT from 51 bets. This could be substantial, and something to look out for in the future, despite the small sample size.
When analysing round by round, it’s clear that head to head betting has been extremely profitable in the opening half of the season. After about round 15, profits decrease. But the first half of the season sees a 14.8% POT from 302 bets since 2014.
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.3 | 37 | $17,093.38 | $1,992.39 | 12% |
| 1.3 | 1.4 | 47 | $17,245.73 | $161.85 | 1% |
| 1.4 | 1.6 | 77 | $24,205.61 | -$4,027.20 | -17% |
| 1.6 | 2 | 100 | $26,426.66 | $3,612.85 | 14% |
| 2 | 2.5 | 128 | $28,583.50 | $125.16 | 0% |
| 2.5 | 3 | 89 | $17,339.12 | $6,801.64 | 39% |
| 3 | 50 | 98 | $12,769.15 | $2,134.58 | 17% |
| 576 | $143,663.15 | $10,801.28 | 7.5% | ||
| Week b4 Origin | |||||
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | $2,129.15 | $310.90 | 15% |
| 2 | 55 | 28 | $5,624.91 | -$921.55 | -16% |
| 35 | $7,754.06 | -$610.65 | -7.9% | ||
| Week after Origin | |||||
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 2 | 38 | $13,122.29 | $2,379.71 | 18% |
| 2 | 55 | 23 | $4,064.65 | -$1,183.15 | -29% |
| 61 | $17,186.94 | $1,196.56 | 7.0% | ||
| Round | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 3 | 46 | $10,917.87 | $1,057.45 | 10% |
| 3 | 6 | 62 | $16,032.56 | $4,963.67 | 31% |
| 6 | 9 | 75 | $16,522.33 | $320.59 | 2% |
| 9 | 12 | 65 | $16,059.46 | $1,577.58 | 10% |
| 12 | 15 | 54 | $13,810.52 | $2,971.91 | 22% |
| 15 | 18 | 55 | $15,847.10 | -$216.72 | -1% |
| 18 | 21 | 56 | $13,530.41 | $945.94 | 7% |
| 21 | 24 | 65 | $17,113.43 | -$954.24 | -6% |
| 24 | 27 | 72 | $18,343.25 | $7.44 | 0% |
| 27 | 33 | 26 | $5,486.24 | $127.67 | 2% |
With regards to line betting, it seems that line betting has been profitable across the board, whether betting on short prices favourites (negative lines) or underdogs (positive lines). A very similar profit to head to head recorded.
Either side of origin, line betting hasn’t been profitable, although it has made small gains betting on favourites the week after origin. Once again, only a sample size of just over 100, but a 3.8% POT loss had been made, which is something that one might be conscious about.
With regards to line betting, the model seems to very consistent throughout the season, and might be the preferred method of betting in the second half of the season.
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -55 | -9 | 126 | $39,523.82 | $1,906.51 | 5% |
| -9 | -5 | 90 | $21,008.40 | -$920.37 | -4% |
| -5 | -3 | 50 | $12,480.13 | $1,603.47 | 13% |
| -3 | 0 | 63 | $14,389.97 | $498.89 | 3% |
| 0 | 2 | 41 | $10,795.13 | $670.71 | 6% |
| 2 | 3 | 56 | $10,758.09 | $1,826.11 | 17% |
| 3 | 4 | 21 | $5,157.34 | -$419.22 | -8% |
| 4 | 55 | 179 | $41,539.57 | $5,707.34 | 14% |
| 626 | $155,652.45 | $10,873.43 | 7.0% | ||
| Week b4 Origin | |||||
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| -55 | 0 | 14 | $3,250.98 | -$8.61 | 0% |
| 0 | 55 | 26 | $6,256.88 | -$795.82 | -13% |
| 40 | $9,507.86 | -$804.42 | -8.5% | ||
| Week after Origin | |||||
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| -55 | 0 | 45 | $12,490.25 | $608.45 | 5% |
| 0 | 55 | 22 | $5,108.57 | -$845.78 | -17% |
| 67 | $17,598.81 | -$237.34 | -1.3% | ||
| Round | |||||
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 3 | 48 | $11,264.15 | $984.93 | 9% |
| 3 | 6 | 69 | $17,174.04 | $367.62 | 2% |
| 6 | 9 | 75 | $16,786.11 | $1,185.09 | 7% |
| 9 | 12 | 67 | $16,496.83 | $3,118.66 | 19% |
| 12 | 15 | 58 | $14,375.09 | $3,718.17 | 26% |
| 15 | 18 | 64 | $16,532.68 | -$3,382.62 | -20% |
| 18 | 21 | 60 | $15,751.25 | $1,158.03 | 7% |
| 21 | 24 | 77 | $20,245.77 | $631.34 | 3% |
| 24 | 27 | 82 | $21,379.18 | $1,476.01 | 7% |
| 27 | 33 | 26 | $5,647.35 | $1,616.20 | 29% |
Please note that past events are not a recipe for future ones, but the analysis shown could be very important to maximising your profit throughout the 2018 NRL season.
Either way, analysis has shown that betting the NRL year after year has been very profitable indeed and hopefully 2018 will continue in that form.
Make sure that you don’t miss out on the first round of the NRL season. Details of subscription packages are shown on this link.
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