Every breakdown of the 1,649 graded selections. Live 2026 results are kept separate from the 2023–2025 backtest throughout. All figures at $1,000 Full Kelly.
88 rounds in chronological order. Backtested through 2025, live from 2026.
| Season | Type | Bets | W | L | Void | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT | Avg price | Avg P(side) | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (R13–R28) | Backtest | 302 | 168 | 134 | 0 | 55.63% | 113,775.57 | +4,628.27 | +4.07% | 1.881 | 0.7083 | 0.3316 |
| 2024 | Backtest | 605 | 344 | 261 | 0 | 56.86% | 239,035.14 | +18,164.87 | +7.60% | 1.862 | 0.7199 | 0.3398 |
| 2025 | Backtest | 545 | 317 | 228 | 0 | 58.17% | 220,747.83 | +16,553.83 | +7.50% | 1.867 | 0.7237 | 0.3505 |
| 2023–2025 subtotal | Backtest | 1,452 | 829 | 623 | 0 | 57.09% | 573,558.50 | +39,346.98 | +6.86% | 1.868 | 0.7189 | 0.3421 |
| 2026 (R11–R25) | Live | 197 | 120 | 77 | 0 | 60.91% | 64,184.49 | +10,035.66 | +15.64% | 1.882 | 0.6843 | 0.2870 |
| Combined | Backtest + live | 1,649 | 949 | 700 | 0 | 57.55% | 637,743.00 | +49,382.64 | +7.74% | 1.870 | 0.7148 | 0.3355 |
No pushes and no dead heats — every disposal line in the record is a half-line, so every bet settles win or lose.
Mutually exclusive bands from the 20% selection threshold upward.
| Edge | Bets | W | L | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT | Avg price | Avg P(side) | Backtest POT | 2026 live POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% – 25% | 467 | 266 | 201 | 56.96% | 121,152.6 | +7,601.19 | +6.27% | 1.867 | 0.6561 | +4.93% | +13.01% |
| 25% – 30% | 331 | 183 | 148 | 55.29% | 104,152.5 | +2,985.08 | +2.87% | 1.873 | 0.6806 | +1.17% | +12.48% |
| 30% – 40% | 474 | 288 | 186 | 60.76% | 188,842.6 | +24,549.73 | +13.00% | 1.865 | 0.7208 | +12.83% | +14.54% |
| 40% – 50% | 207 | 110 | 97 | 53.14% | 106,204.2 | −1,126.37 | −1.06% | 1.871 | 0.7730 | −2.22% | +16.86% |
| 50%+ | 170 | 102 | 68 | 60.00% | 117,391.1 | +15,373.02 | +13.10% | 1.881 | 0.8545 | +12.02% | +51.86% |
Non-monotonic in both periods — a bigger modelled edge has not meant a proportionally better return. The 40–50% band is the weakest of the five. This is a limitation of the model's confidence, not a reason to move the threshold, and no threshold change is proposed on the basis of this table.
| Rd | Bets | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32 | 56.25% | 14,386 | +22 | +0.15% |
| 1 | 67 | 61.19% | 32,152 | +5,506 | +17.12% |
| 2 | 63 | 39.68% | 29,095 | −7,909 | −27.18% |
| 3 | 53 | 50.94% | 22,407 | −97 | −0.43% |
| 4 | 65 | 61.54% | 25,971 | +5,069 | +19.52% |
| 5 | 49 | 57.14% | 21,278 | +920 | +4.32% |
| 6 | 34 | 55.88% | 13,268 | +950 | +7.16% |
| 7 | 38 | 65.79% | 14,668 | +3,064 | +20.89% |
| 8 | 41 | 60.98% | 16,495 | +2,036 | +12.35% |
| 9 | 44 | 50.00% | 16,667 | −434 | −2.60% |
| 10 | 45 | 55.56% | 17,473 | −331 | −1.90% |
| 11 | 69 | 53.62% | 26,603 | −762 | −2.86% |
| 12 | 68 | 55.88% | 25,938 | −348 | −1.34% |
| 13 | 79 | 58.23% | 29,158 | +4,075 | +13.98% |
| 14 | 53 | 64.15% | 20,640 | +2,822 | +13.67% |
| Rd | Bets | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 55 | 56.36% | 19,061 | +1,914 | +10.04% |
| 16 | 70 | 47.14% | 25,513 | −2,074 | −8.13% |
| 17 | 68 | 54.41% | 24,399 | −66 | −0.27% |
| 18 | 65 | 61.54% | 24,315 | +4,834 | +19.88% |
| 19 | 77 | 63.64% | 30,473 | +6,853 | +22.49% |
| 20 | 74 | 66.22% | 26,524 | +6,875 | +25.92% |
| 21 | 68 | 50.00% | 24,876 | −2,878 | −11.57% |
| 22 | 66 | 53.03% | 24,521 | +825 | +3.37% |
| 23 | 77 | 57.14% | 29,038 | +2,287 | +7.87% |
| 24 | 74 | 60.81% | 27,192 | +3,233 | +11.89% |
| 25 | 69 | 68.12% | 25,504 | +6,676 | +26.18% |
| 26 | 30 | 66.67% | 10,780 | +2,165 | +20.08% |
| 27 | 33 | 66.67% | 11,488 | +3,287 | +28.61% |
| 28 | 23 | 56.52% | 7,861 | +867 | +11.03% |
| Grouping | Bets | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest · Rounds 1–12 | 625 | 55.20% | 262,796 | +6,815 | +2.59% |
| Backtest · Rounds 13+ | 827 | 58.52% | 310,763 | +32,532 | +10.47% |
| 2026 live · Rounds 11–12 | 43 | 58.14% | 13,603 | +871 | +6.40% |
| 2026 live · Rounds 13+ | 154 | 61.69% | 50,581 | +9,165 | +18.12% |
| Regular season (all) | 1,494 | 56.69% | 582,110 | +36,387 | +6.25% |
| Finals, R25+ (all) | 155 | 65.81% | 55,633 | +12,995 | +23.36% |
Late-season strength shows in both periods. The finals split was not specified in advance and rests on 155 bets — treat it as an observation, not a finding.
| Line | Bets | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT | Backtest POT | 2026 live POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 15.5 | 25 | 52.00% | 8,855.8 | +151.50 | +1.71% | +4.86% | −100.00% |
| 15.5 – 19.5 | 511 | 60.67% | 193,720.0 | +26,041.87 | +13.44% | +13.06% | +18.51% |
| 20.5 – 24.5 | 752 | 57.85% | 297,830.2 | +27,043.61 | +9.08% | +7.49% | +21.26% |
| 25.5 – 29.5 | 295 | 52.88% | 112,100.9 | −3,610.79 | −3.22% | −5.13% | +12.48% |
| 30.5+ | 66 | 53.03% | 25,236.1 | −243.56 | −0.97% | +3.81% | −28.95% |
The two smallest bands hold 91 bets between them; the 2026 sub-15.5 figure is a single losing bet.
| Line | Bets | W | L | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT | Avg price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 55.00% | 22,302.1 | +543.99 | +2.44% | 1.874 |
| 17.5 | 123 | 76 | 47 | 61.79% | 46,002.2 | +6,691.88 | +14.55% | 1.873 |
| 18.5 | 151 | 93 | 58 | 61.59% | 58,607.3 | +8,076.74 | +13.78% | 1.860 |
| 19.5 | 153 | 91 | 62 | 59.48% | 59,708.1 | +8,768.59 | +14.69% | 1.868 |
| 20.5 | 170 | 85 | 85 | 50.00% | 70,705.3 | −4,524.43 | −6.40% | 1.867 |
| 21.5 | 142 | 88 | 54 | 61.97% | 56,846.4 | +9,261.35 | +16.29% | 1.872 |
| 22.5 | 155 | 86 | 69 | 55.48% | 58,935.6 | +3,857.54 | +6.55% | 1.869 |
| 23.5 | 160 | 92 | 68 | 57.50% | 61,876.8 | +5,052.79 | +8.17% | 1.876 |
| 24.5 | 125 | 84 | 41 | 67.20% | 49,466.2 | +13,396.35 | +27.08% | 1.878 |
| 25.5 | 95 | 57 | 38 | 60.00% | 36,593.5 | +3,529.05 | +9.64% | 1.871 |
| 26.5 | 61 | 30 | 31 | 49.18% | 23,296.3 | −2,771.18 | −11.90% | 1.866 |
| 27.5 | 56 | 21 | 35 | 37.50% | 19,198.0 | −6,495.13 | −33.83% | 1.870 |
| 28.5 | 48 | 26 | 22 | 54.17% | 18,491.9 | +237.38 | +1.28% | 1.875 |
| 29.5 | 35 | 22 | 13 | 62.86% | 14,521.2 | +1,889.08 | +13.01% | 1.866 |
| 30.5 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 38.46% | 9,538.2 | −2,930.20 | −30.72% | 1.850 |
Every price in both periods is a Sportsbet price.
| Odds | Bets | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT | Backtest POT | 2026 live POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 1.70 | 3 | 100.00% | 1,328.7 | +891.97 | +67.13% | +67.13% | — |
| 1.70 – 1.79 | 153 | 56.21% | 62,997.7 | −231.83 | −0.37% | +0.73% | −28.14% |
| 1.80 – 1.89 | 1,082 | 56.75% | 423,855.2 | +25,798.82 | +6.09% | +5.29% | +13.65% |
| 1.90 – 1.99 | 388 | 59.02% | 141,536.6 | +18,580.37 | +13.13% | +11.99% | +19.92% |
| 2.00 – 2.19 | 23 | 73.91% | 8,024.9 | +4,343.31 | +54.12% | +46.33% | +100.54% |
| 2.20+ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prices cluster tightly: 1,082 of 1,649 bets sit between 1.80 and 1.89. The outer bands hold 26 bets in total and are shown only for completeness.
| Games | Bets | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 25 * | 170 | 62.35% | 86,096.0 | +13,140.12 | +15.26% |
| 25 – 49 | 247 | 54.25% | 99,075.4 | +1,316.05 | +1.33% |
| 50 – 74 | 204 | 61.27% | 78,173.0 | +13,213.02 | +16.90% |
| 75 – 99 | 150 | 60.00% | 52,678.6 | +5,074.23 | +9.63% |
| 100 – 149 | 335 | 57.31% | 123,571.3 | +7,489.79 | +6.06% |
| 150 – 199 | 299 | 56.52% | 114,800.1 | +6,529.36 | +5.69% |
| 200+ | 244 | 54.51% | 83,348.6 | +2,620.08 | +3.14% |
* Players with fewer than 25 career games appear in the 2023–2025 backtest only. The live rule requires 25 career games, so that band contains no 2026 bets. Game counts are taken as at the match, with no future information.
| Role | Bets | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defender | 478 | 60.04% | 181,165.8 | +21,848.84 | +12.06% |
| Inside midfielder | 498 | 56.63% | 184,230.3 | +10,427.51 | +5.66% |
| Outside mid / wing | 283 | 56.89% | 108,615.0 | +9,031.32 | +8.31% |
| General / utility | 243 | 55.56% | 107,452.6 | +4,838.09 | +4.50% |
| Ruck | 53 | 58.49% | 20,583.0 | +1,640.25 | +7.97% |
| Forward | 94 | 56.38% | 35,696.5 | +1,596.62 | +4.47% |
Roles are derived from each player's own rolling 30-game form before the match — clearances, goals, marks and disposals, plus a career-to-date hitout rate that excludes the current game. No present-day position list is used, so no future information enters the classification.
| Role | Backtest bets | Backtest POT | 2026 live bets | 2026 live POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defender | 379 | +10.42% | 99 | +19.62% |
| Inside midfielder | 461 | +5.75% | 37 | +4.38% |
| Outside mid / wing | 267 | +7.12% | 16 | +30.50% |
| General / utility | 227 | +2.93% | 16 | +32.14% |
| Ruck | 46 | +12.39% | 7 | −31.30% |
| Forward | 72 | +4.54% | 22 | +4.17% |
Several 2026 role cells hold fewer than 20 bets and should not be read as signal.
Predicted strike rate against the actual strike rate, by band.
| Model said | Bets | Predicted | Actual | Gap | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% – 65% | 202 | 63.63% | 59.41% | 4.22 pts | 48,964.4 | +7,067.54 | +14.43% |
| 65% – 70% | 628 | 67.43% | 55.25% | 12.18 pts | 187,476.3 | +6,354.60 | +3.39% |
| 70% – 75% | 424 | 72.30% | 59.91% | 12.40 pts | 169,017.2 | +18,681.46 | +11.05% |
| 75%+ | 395 | 81.03% | 57.72% | 23.31 pts | 232,285.2 | +17,279.04 | +7.44% |
The model over-predicts its own side in every band and the error grows with confidence. It stays profitable because it only has to beat the price: break-even at the average price of 1.870 is 53.5% and the realised rate is 57.6%. The practical consequence is that Full Kelly over-stakes — see the methodology page.
| Band | Backtest bets | Predicted | Actual | Backtest POT | 2026 live bets | Predicted | Actual | 2026 live POT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60–65% | 153 | 63.60% | 57.52% | +10.97% | 49 | 63.73% | 65.31% | +25.45% |
| 65–70% | 537 | 67.42% | 55.49% | +3.76% | 91 | 67.50% | 53.85% | +1.25% |
| 70–75% | 385 | 72.34% | 58.44% | +8.36% | 39 | 71.91% | 74.36% | +38.23% |
| 75%+ | 377 | 81.16% | 57.82% | +7.37% | 18 | 78.34% | 55.56% | +9.14% |
| Measure | 2023–2025 backtest | 2026 live | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Profit from the 5 largest wins | 10.6% | 28.2% | 8.4% |
| Profit from the 10 largest wins | 20.7% | 50.5% | 16.5% |
| Profit from the top 10% of stakes | 14.0% | 17.2% | 15.7% |
| POT excluding the 5 largest wins | +6.18% | +11.78% | +7.14% |
| POT excluding the best round | +6.08% | +12.75% | +7.05% |
| Profitable rounds | 43 / 73 (58.9%) | 11 / 15 (73.3%) | 54 / 88 (61.4%) |
| Maximum drawdown | $9,642 | $1,739 | $9,642 |
| Longest losing run | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| Worst round | 2025 R2 −$5,679 | 2026 R13 −$515 | 2025 R2 −$5,679 |
| Best round | 2023 R20 +$5,018 | 2026 R25 +$2,531 | 2023 R20 +$5,018 |
The backtest is not concentration-driven — removing its five best wins costs only 0.68 POT points. The live period is concentrated: half its profit sits in ten bets, which is what a 197-bet sample looks like, and it is the main reason +15.64% should not be projected forward.
| Round | Bets | W | L | Strike | Staked $ | Profit $ | POT | Avg price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 52.00% | 7,694.75 | −122.41 | −1.59% | 1.870 |
| 12 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 66.67% | 5,908.43 | +993.51 | +16.82% | 1.872 |
| 13 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50.00% | 4,319.95 | −515.46 | −11.93% | 1.869 |
| 14 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80.00% | 3,019.78 | +1,450.92 | +48.05% | 1.886 |
| 15 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 50.00% | 7,170.13 | +327.28 | +4.56% | 1.907 |
| 16 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 60.87% | 7,843.10 | +1,170.99 | +14.93% | 1.869 |
| 17 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 71.43% | 4,363.87 | +1,336.61 | +30.63% | 1.876 |
| 18 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71.43% | 2,300.53 | +590.96 | +25.69% | 1.903 |
| 19 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 64.29% | 4,522.59 | +997.03 | +22.05% | 1.869 |
| 20 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75.00% | 1,079.56 | +364.91 | +33.80% | 1.885 |
| 21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80.00% | 1,344.21 | +726.81 | +54.07% | 1.880 |
| 22 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50.00% | 2,163.75 | −127.94 | −5.91% | 1.901 |
| 23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50.00% | 1,856.46 | −108.89 | −5.87% | 1.870 |
| 24 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53.85% | 5,257.68 | +420.41 | +8.00% | 1.885 |
| 25 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 71.43% | 5,339.70 | +2,530.92 | +47.40% | 1.903 |
| Total | 197 | 120 | 77 | 60.91% | 64,184.49 | +10,035.66 | +15.64% | 1.882 |
Eleven of fifteen rounds profitable. Four losing rounds, the worst of them −$515.
Members receive every qualifying disposal selection — player, line, side, price and edge — pushed the morning of the game. The rule does not change between subscribers.
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