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The AFL season is set to start this weekend, and what a year we hope it to be. If the previous years are anything to go by then it should be another cracker. The betting history speaks for itself. The last 5 years has seen an 18.5% ROI with last year and 2012 both recording over 22% ROI. Incredible stuff! The new player based model has been doing just as well too in its break out year.

The AFL model I believe is Sportpunter’s best. The consistent profits made year in year out, and simplicity of only betting on weekends makes it the perfect subscription for professional punters and newbies alike.

But what is important is to get on board early in round 1. Too many punters like to start betting after round 5 or so because they want to have a feel for the teams. Well the Sportpunter model already has a feel from round 1 and the results speak for themselves.

Shown below are the profits made for line betting since 2005 by round.

Clearly this shows that the first few rounds are when a lot of the profit is made. So it is very important to get subscribed before the first bounce of the first game. In 2011 for example, we won all first 6 bets from round 1, and the two biggest bets in round 2.

But whilst the graph above looks as though the profits generally decrease over the season, it is not a general fault of the model why this is so. Keep in mind that the number of matches played in round 23 onwards are a lot less due to finals. The graph below shows the %ROI based on round for line betting since 2005.

This graph shows a pretty consistent profit made throughout the season. The profits early in the year are therefore bigger, because the bet size is bigger and this is because the overlay or advantage to punter is bigger.

So once again this shows the importance of signing up before round 1 starts to reap the rewards. The futures (probability of premiership, finals, spoon etc.) are now on the webpage, and traditionally these have done very well.

This will be our 16^th year at making predictions for the AFL. This model has significant profits from long term results. All the details about the AFL subscriptions as well as the betting histories are shown here http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/afl/

Best of punting luck in 2014

Sportpunter.com

The most anticipated season for Sportpunter punters is now open for subscription. With the preseason competition set to start this Wednesday night, you can get all the player based predictions from our website.

Whilst the predictions for preseason will not officially be put into our betting history, there could be some scope, especially with the new player based model, to get early value for a competition that would be hard for bookies to accurately price up.

In fact, it seems that they don’t price up the regular season that well either. The record for Sportpunter’s AFL model is second to none. Just take a look at the incredible results here: http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/afl-results/

It shows that last year was our second best head to head betting season since we’ve been predicting since 1999. We made 22.6% return on investment (ROI) last year, and over the scope of 15 years of betting history have made an incredible 11.0% ROI.
Line betting results are even better. For the second year in a row we have made over 20% ROI for the year, also making 22.6% ROI in what has been our best year ever. The last 5 years alone have made over 18.5% ROI from 723 bets. Amazing.

Places could well be limited, so make sure you sign up for Sportpunter’s AFL Model here to get all the preseason predictions. http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/afl/
Super15s season starts this weekend

The super15s rugby union season starts this weekend and Sportpunter will be once again giving predictions for free. Last year was almost our best year ever with head to head betting making a very nice 20.5% ROI. In fact the last three seasons have averaged 9% ROI. A full betting history is shown here http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/rugby-union-results/ with predictions and season information shown from the main Super 15s website: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/rugby-union/

We wrote previously about how the Russian and Finish hockey totals results were not too flash. And the reason was simple, the database did not have enough data to come up with accurate results, and hence every expected value of goals it predicted for every match was the same.

This made the ice hockey model look terribly bad. Russia itself had lost 16% ROI from 403 bets alone. But since the previous article we have upgraded the leagues of these two, and how have they gone since?

Swimmingly!

Russia has made 3.1% ROI from 108 bets, whilst Finland has made 10.6% ROI from 66 bets. In fact, all the leagues have done amazingly well since the update at 9/12/13. The handicap or line market has made 5.4% ROI from 519 bets, and the totals have made a staggering 9.2% ROI from 601 bets. Totals alone has made nearly $7,500 in this period (based on $1k bank, full Kelly).

What’s more is that the European ice hockey model is free. So knock yourself out.

Full details and betting histories are shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/ice-hockey/euro/

The ATP tennis season is about to start once again, and we thought we’d analyse how well the model has gone by month. There have been suggestions that the model has done better earlier in the tennis season and faded away a little bit at the end due to motivational issues. Is this the case? Well we thought we’d analyse it.

Shown below is a table of all results going back to the start of 2006, and the profits we have had per month. Whilst the table shows some good info, it might be easier to see on the following two graphs, which look at profit per month and %ROI per month. Analysis to follow

Clearly it shows that a large amount of the profit is made up in the first 7 months. In fact just over 80% of the profit has come from this. If you include month 12 as the start of the season (because the only ATP matches held in this time are ones just after Christmas – start of a new season), then the result is even more highlighted.

Apart from February, almost all months in this time have at least a $10,000 profit and significant %ROI over 5%. Then in months 8 and 9 (August and September), the profit drops off a but down to about 1-2% ROI before rebounding again for the end of season in October and November.

The amount of bets made in September is clearly less than other months, so this can highlight the issue around this time. What is interesting is that the US Open generally starts in late August, so it seems that the lead up matches to the US Open as well as post US Open matches, and perhaps the US Open itself, do not quite return the same amount as other months.

But given that, one could conclude that post Australian Open the same issues occur in February. Could this all be a motivation issue? There is a long way between drinks between the Australian open and the next major the French Open. Likewise, post US Open, apart from prize money, there might be little for some players in regards to motivation.

But then again, this could all just be random variation. Maybe it’s something to store in the back of the mind coming into the 2014 season.
2014 tennis subscriptions are available now. Get the details here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/tennis/