Sportpunter

For those of you who have not known, soccer totals betting has gone through the roof of late. This season to date, we have made 4.4% ROI from over 3,500 bets, and the past month has been even better. What makes the soccer totals model so good is the vast amount of games from different leagues. Punters can pick and choose what leagues they want to bet on. Perhaps follow the most successful or the leagues that they know or watch.

Even better, is that the model is free. Completely free of charge. So make sure you give it a good look.

Shown below is the break up of how each individual league has gone, and whilst it is only a small sample size per league, there are a few things to point out. Coming up the top of the list are some of the smaller leagues; Paraguay, Bosnia, Ukraine and Lithuania, whilst down the bottom it shows that Norway Tippeligaen has been terrible, followed by Estonia, Azerbaijan and Switzerland.

As far as the big leagues go, EPL has made 1.7% from 86 bets, France Ligue 1 has made 2.1% from 22 bets, whilst German Bundesliga has made a handy 11.9% ROI from 60 bets. The top Spanish league has performed well making 31% from a small sample of 17 bets, whilst Italy Serie A has made 22% from 32 bets.

An analysis of minimum overlays, suggest that a 10% minimum might be better than the standard 5% as shown by the table below.

Either way, things are looking good for the free soccer totals model, so why not join on board.

College Basketball Season Commences

The American College Basketball season has just commenced, and once again we are giving away predictions free of charge. Predictions are updated twice daily to make sure that all the predictions are released when the odds are available. With a large number of matches played per year, this sport is great for getting a lot of turnover on.

Totals betting is the way to go here, and we have a betting history record going back to 2003/04. Overall we’ve made 6.6% ROI from 7300 bets. The past 3-4 years we have made in between 2% and 5.6% ROI per year, with the last two years recording nearly 1250 bets. Suggested bets and full betting histories found here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/college/

NBA Early Profits

We told you how the Sportpunter model makes massive profits early in the season, and we were correct once again in 2012/13. Already this year from 68 bets we have made 20.8% ROI and $3,800 profit. Totals as well have been on fire, with 71 bets made at a 59% success winning rate. A return on investment of 15.6% per bet has been made. Amazing results. The predictions are free, so make sure you get on now, early in the season, whilst the going is good. Full details here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/

Euro Basketball

It really is all about basketball this week, and Euro Basketball betting has not been struggling at all. From over 1500 bets since November last year, Euro Basketball betting has made 1.7% ROI betting head to head, 5.0% ROI betting on the line, and 4.5% ROI betting the totals. That’s a very large sample size, with big profits. Like NBA and college basketball, Euro Basketball is also free of charge on Sportpunter. So get on board with all the details here and start winning: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/euro/

Australian (NBL) Basketball

The Australian Basketball season has started as well, and profits are great to start off with. Whilst only a limited number of bets have been made, profits have been nice. 17 bets at 8.5% ROI for head to head betting and 18 bets at 9.9% ROI for line betting. Totals unfortunately have shown a loss from their 17 bets, but it’s very early on in the season and hopefully, like previous years, profits will continue. Check out the 7 year betting history and predictions here for NBL: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nbl/

The NBA season is set to start in just one day, and once again Sportpunter will be giving away predictions for free of charge. We’ve been running the model for 2 years now and have had some fantastic success. Last season we made 5% ROI betting the lines and 2.5% ROI betting the totals, with similar results the previous years.

What’s more, is that the model seems to do better earlier on in the season. Line or handicap betting, made 5% ROI in the first 6 weeks of the 2010/11 season, and an incredible 25% ROI of the first 6 weeks of the 2011/12 season. This from about 350 bets.

Totals betting also fared well at the start of the season. In 2010/11, we made 9.6% ROI from 474 bets for the first 14 weeks, whilst in 2011/12, the first 14 weeks netted 5.4% ROI from 345 bets. Full betting history results are shown here.

Clearly, the model has been very profitable, and especially earlier on in the season. With only a day to go, make sure you check out the free Sportpunter NBA predictions as shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/

The NBL (Australian basketball) starts this Friday, and for the 7^th season in a row, Sportpunter will be providing predictions. No doubt it is one of our best models, and we also believe it is one of the weakest markets out there that we can exploit.

In 6 years that we have been providing suggested bets we have made over 11% ROI betting on the totals from over 500 bets as shown by the betting history here.  This includes an incredible 31.5% ROI profit last season. Head to head betting, hasn’t been quite as good, but a still very profitable 3.6% ROI has been made over the journey.

What is more pleasing, is that last year we decided to track handicap or line betting for the first year, and despite a small loss in h2h betting, a very nice 15% ROI was made betting the line. Seems to me this could be the way forward.

So with the season starting this weekend, and the short pre season already over, one should be getting on board as soon as possible. Click here for all the subscription options

The NFL season for 2012 has started round 1, with the first gameof round 2 set to start on Thursday  between the Bears and the Packers

Once again Sportpunter will be offering our predictions for every game, and if previous years records are to go by, we should have another profitable year. Full results are shown here for our model: http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/nfl/ and these show that we recorded a 10% ROI profit betting the line and a 3.3% ROI profit betting the totals. In total over the two years we are up 5.5% ROI betting the line and 4.7% ROI betting the totals  from about 400 bets each respectively.

But interesting is how the model goes throughout the year. Whilst we only have a small sample size of two years, it might be interesting to see how the profits come in round by round. Shown below is the breakup of betting and profits for line and totals betting per round, followed by a brief summary.

Totals by round:

Line betting by round:

Clearly it shows that totals betting seems to go well from the word go, round 1, and if anything swindles a little later in the season. The opposite is true of line betting. Despite some big wins in round 3, it has taken until about mid-way through the season to show nice profits. Of course as I said, this is only a very small sample size, and one shouldn’t look into it as gospel, but there is good reason why the model might struggle a little early on with player movements between teams.

Either way, hopefully we get around the same type of success that we have had as previous years for what is one of the most popular bet sports in the world.

Click here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/nfl/ to register your subscription for the upcoming 2012 season.

We previously looked at how well Sportpunter models had gone in the first half of this year. The results were very good indeed with the average bank increase of about 250% to 400% of your starting bank depending on your strategy. Now, we will look at the strategies and determine which is the best one – well at least discuss it with a little bit of data.

The following graph is how one would have gone betting a moving bank (after every week), different moving banks for each sport, and a constant bank for 1/15^th Kelly divisor. Considering that all methods are betting on the same bets, they all generally follow each other.

The moving bank scenario finished with the highest profit for the first six months for 2012 despite a lot more variability over that time. When things were going good, and you could put a few good weeks in a row together, this is when the moving bank strategy excelled. However, the contrary is also true. Given a losing streak, the moving bank suffered more so that the constant bank.  This is true also to some degree for the moving different banks, though hardly as extreme.

Of course how much profit one made during a certain amount of time is very dependent for the moving bank scenario on the last few weeks, whilst with a constant bank, as the name suggests, each week is consistently as important in the final profit amount.  However more interestingly is the graph below which shows the finished banks (from $10,000) for each of the three methods.

Clearly the above graph shows that the constant (and moving different bank method) are preferable in the first half of 2012 if the Kelly Divisor is less than about 12. For larger more conservative divisors, a moving bank is preferable.

Now naturally, the above analysis implies that you use the same Kelly Divisor on all the sports. One might decide against this as they are more confident on certain sports and sports models than others. But despite this, the point has been proven to some degree, that a constant bank is preferable for smaller and more risky Kelly Divisors, whilst a moving bank is more preferable for more conservative Kelly divisors.

This to me, makes logical sense. But what is the best Kelly divisors and strategies for all the sports? Well soon we shall be providing an excel spreadsheet for you to play around with, but next up we will be looking at the Sportpunter model’s record going back several years.

There’s been quite a lot of talk in the forum and elsewhere about how best to manage your money. Should you use a moving bank? Adjustable after every day, or every week or month? Or maybe just adjust at the end of the season.

Furthermore, this is a great opportunity to tell everyone how well, or bad, the Sportpunter models have gone in the first half of the year.

We’ve download all of the results from all our models in all our sports, and worked out how much we would have made this year, had we started the year with a $10,000 bank and betting every sport at various Kelly divisors. The sports that we have in the analysis is as follows:

• AFL – Line betting
• MLB – h2h
• MLB – totals
• NCAAB – totals
• NBA – line
• NBA – totals
• NBL – line
• NBL – totals
• Golf – h2h
• NHL – totals
• EU Ice – Line
• EU Ice – Totals
• EU Basketball – Line
• EU Basketball – Totals
• NFL – Line
• NFL – Totals
• NRL – h2h
• Super15s – h2h
• ATP – h2h
• WTA – h2h

Now of course, should one use slightly different combinations of sports one would come up with different results, but the main sports to bet on in my opinion are above, even though some are relatively new. Keep in mind that not all of the above sports provided a profit in the first half of 2012. NHL totals, EU Basketball totals, NRL, Super15s and WTA all provided reasonable losses. Whilst NFL totals and NCAAB Totals provided small losses from small turnover.

Firstly, the results of the Sportpunter’s models can be better shown using constant Kelly. From a $10,000 bank, the results of how one would have gone betting all of Sportpunter’s above models at various Kelly divisors is shown below in the graph.

The graph above shows that the finishing bank should end up somewhere between $27,000 to $44,000 (divisors 20 and 10), at the end of six months. This means a one would have finished the first half of the year, almost tripling your bank up to more than quadrupling it. Very good results indeed.

Once again, it must be stated that it is dependent on what odds you receive and what sports you bet, but the true significance of how good the Sportpunter models is, is shown above.

As an example, shown below is how the year panned out for someone betting at 1/15^th Kelly on all the sports.

In the next post, we will have a look at different Strategies, from Moving Banks, to separate banks for each sport, and will also give you the opportunity to download the Excel spreadsheet that gave the above (and next articles) data for you to play around with.