Sportpunter

The 2017 AFL Season is fast approaching and once again Sportpunter will be providing predictions.

Last year might have been a sour one, but we will show in the analysis below how we expect to go in 2017.

If you look at the bigger picture, we have made 12.1% ROI from line betting in the last 12 years and 10.3% ROI in the last five years. With only about 140 bets per year there’s bound to be year to year variation in results.

In fact, we’ve even done a simulation of potential profits. Given an average line bet size of $190 (as per average bet size of past 10 years), and a random amount bet from as low as $50 up to $329, and 140 bets per year. We simulated the season based on the fact that we have a 10% ROI and a 5% ROI respectively. The graph below shows both. So even with a 10% ROI, over 140 bets there is still a very good chance that we would have a losing year. The graphs show 50,000 simulations and the %ROI that we received after each one.

That just goes to show that, even with a big edge, random variation still plays its part, and as a successful punter, one has to consider this as part of your own personal betting strategy. A live example of random variation can be seen in the NRL model in the last 3 years where a player based model was implemented. In 2014 we made 10.9% ROI followed by only 0.2% ROI the next year and then 13.1% ROI in 2016. (Subscriptions is open for rugby league here)

Interestingly as well though, the average bet size for line betting has decreased a little over the years. Bet sizes increased considerably in 2011 to 2014, around the time we implemented a player based model, however the last two years the average bet size has been considerably lower. Whilst this is only a smaller sample size of 2 years, it could be noted that there could be a reason behind it.

Bet size, using the Kelly method can only be larger due to smaller odds or larger overlays. Whilst betting on the line the odds are kept moderately consistent, the only way where bet size is
smaller if the overlays are smaller.

This can only happen if the market has become more efficient. Perhaps the bookies are pricing up smarter odds, perhaps the odds have been backed in earlier, perhaps the smaller bet size is just random variation. Either way, it’s something for punters to take note of.

That said, there are still plenty of good signs coming up for the 2017 AFL Model, and I’m looking forward to sharing the profits that the last 18 years have produced.
Betting histories and subscription details for the AFL are available here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/afl/

The NRL season is set to star this Thursday and once again Sportpunter are giving out predictions. Every day that there are matches at 11.30am predictions will be uploaded, and hopefully they will be as successful as the past.

For the past three years that we have had a player based model, we have seen a profit on turnover of 8.2%

Subscriptions are now available to purchase, and you can double up with AFL to make things cheaper. Make sure you get on early, as results show especially that early rounds can profit even more.

Details here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/rugby-league/

The NBA Season is just about to start and Sportpunter will be giving predictions every day for every match in 2016/17. Please note, that as shown below in our analysis, it is critical that you sign up and get the first few weeks of predictions, because – as we shall show below – they are the most important and most successful for our NBA model. Click here to sign up or view prices for Sportpunter’s NBA model for season 2016/17.
Ok, now onto the nitty gritty. Firstly h2h betting. The betting history shows us that we have made 2.8% ROI from 4000 bets since 2010/11 which is great going. However last year we made an incredible 6.8% ROI, and with some simple analysis as shown below we can increase that amount.
Analysis of profits week by week is shown below in the graph for head to head betting

Clearly this shows that the majority of the profit has been made in the first 2 weeks. That’s right the first 2 weeks!. But profit also continues to rise until about week 22 to 24. This is generally a week or two just before playoffs. Whilst playoff profits have done well at 2.2% ROI, it’s the week or two beforehand that things don’t do that well. Mostly likely for this is because of teams motivation. Are certain teams not capable of making the playoffs? Maybe some teams have already secured a playoff position, and maybe some teams require every match critical.
I plan on doing more analysis on this, and hopefully by the time we come to 2-3 weeks out from playoffs, I will have upgraded the model to account for this. But if at this stage we don’t include the 2 weeks out from play offs, profits increase from 2.8% ROI up to 3.2% ROI, a slight but nice improvement.

For the line (or handicap betting) for NBA, I have included the profits (shown in brown) along with the amount bet(shown in green).

On first look, the amount bet clearly decreases as the season progresses, which indicates again that the big overlays occur at the start of the season. The brown line suggests again that most profits are made in the early weeks, and from weeks 10 to 24 have shown near even results. Inn week 25 (one week out from playoffs), a massive 20.7% loss has been made from 127 bets. Clearly, I recommend not betting this week until I can better improve the model. Playoffs have not recorded a profit either. From 227 bets a 10% ROI loss was made. A small sample, but something to be wary about as well. More on this to come with future analysis.

A similar graph has been made with totals betting as well as shown below.

It also shows (with the green line) that the amount bet decreases as the season progresses. In that the biggest overlays occur at the start of the season. The brown line indicates this as well with profits increasing up till about week 10. Losses were made from then on until round 20, which follows by big profits up to the playoffs. The playoffs record is just over breakeven.
So based on the above, what are my recommendations? Clearly the first few weeks are critical to jumpon board the NBA models, and profits continue to increase until about 2 months in. From then, I will leave it up to you if you continue betting.

However, I highly recommend not betting h2h and line betting a few weeks out from the playoffs.
Make sure you sign up before the season starts. Subscriptions and price information is shown at this link. Best of Sport Punting luck!

NFL is back for 2016 and we have included some analysis as shown below.
Shown below are analysis of the NFL betting for the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

Firstly line betting. Results are good at the start of the year, and I see no reason not to be early. However a minimum overlay of 25% might be the best taking. Keep in mind that these are small sample sizes.

For totals betting, profits seem to occur in the latter half of the season from around round 14 onwards. A minimum overlay of 12.5% might be advantageous, and this takes away a lot of the noise, so that betting from around weeks 4 or 5 is best for totals betting.

Once again note that these involve small sample sizes, but hopefully we will come out in front again in 2016/17
You can sign up to the Sportpunter NFL subscription here.

Line Data

Totals Data

Hi Guys, just a quick note to remind you that the AFL season starts on Thursday.

Over the years we have had an amazing record as shown here. The last 7 seasons has seen us record over 15% profit on turnover betting the line.

Incredible stuff. Last year we recorded a 6.3% POT, but astute punters will remember that I did not recommend any of the suggested bets in round 23 (one round before finals), due to motivational factors of teams (teams resting entire teams, dead rubbers etc. etc.).

If you were to follow that advice, then the profit on turnover increases to 11.4% for the year.

AFL betting has been Sportpunter’s bread and butter, and our previous articles have suggested that a lot of the profits come in the early rounds as shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/2014/03/afl-profits-round-by-round/

So make sure you sign up for 2016, as places could well be limited.
Click here for all the information and statistics: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/afl/

The rugby league NRL season 2016 starts tonight with the Eels taking on the Broncos, and once again Sportpunter will be delivering predictions for the upcoming season.
We are excited again with our model, as it has shown over the past two years to be very profitable since we introduced our player rating system. In fact the last 2 years we have made 5.4% ROI from 291 bets, and we hope that that number will continue into 2016.

Subscriptions are available with prices as shown here, and the betting histories are shown here:

But first, let’s do some analysis on how the model has gone, specifically looking at the last two year. Please refer to this webpage, with links to the right outlining the statistical analysis for all figures.

Analysis shows that we have made a 5.4% ROI from 291 bets as previously stated since the player based model started. But interestingly, most of those profits occurred with the Away side. 11% ROI was made from 179 betting on the away team, as opposed to a 2% loss for the home team.

When looking at the probability, a small loss was made betting on teams with probs < 50%, whilst a 6.5% ROI profit was made on our calculated favourites. When looking at analysis by odds, we see an interesting picture. All up a 7.2% loss was made betting on teams with odds less than 1.90, whilst an incredible 21% ROI was made betting on the underdogs. Analysis by overlay showed an increasing profit with increasing overlay which is a great sign of an accurate model.

Analysis by round showed that early stages are very good betting opportunities, with an 11.8% ROI made in the first 20 rounds, whilst the last 10 rounds provided an 8.6% loss. Please note however, that these involve very small sample sizes and not too much should be written into it. However it is interesting analysis and one might want to change their strategies based on this information.

Probably the greatest analysis from above is how the away team and underdogs seem to have gone with the model in the past two seasons. Does the model just pick a good dog, or is it biased to the away team? Well one way to work this out is to test how the model has gone blind betting every game to win $1000.

As shown in the link above, blind betting the home team over the last 2 years has resulted in a 5.8% loss as compared to only a 2.8% loss blind betting the away team. A small difference, but more interestly, blind betting the favourite resulted in a 7.8% loss whilst blind betting the underdog results in a 7.4% profit. One could have easily just bet every dog the last two years and been way on top.

Blind betting the Underdog when away was even better, resulting in a 9.7% advantage.

So is this a long term trend, or just a recent adjustment, or do we not have enough data to come to any concrete conclusions?

Well I decided to look back on all data (that I have) since 2005. Analysis shows here that blind betting the home team resulted in a 2.8% loss, whilst the away team had a 6.7% loss. Blind betting the fav had a 5% loss, whilst blind betting the underdog only a 1% loss. Blind betting the underdog if playing away had a 3.8% loss.
The difference between the losses made blind betting the favourite and the underdog is significant, and it tells me that the underdogs are underrated, maybe moreso recently. Has home ground advantage diminished over the years? Possibly, and teams become more professional in their strategies.

So what should we conclude about the model and best form of attack in 2016? Well in total, we should hopefully be able to produce another great profit, and you must note that in the last two years more bets are suggested on the underdog than the favourite. So any bias in the odds is already accounted for with the model. Will the underdog bias continue? Most likely, but just betting the underdog could be a recipe for disaster as the market adjusts.

To subscribe to Sportpunter’s model in 2016 the click here for all the information.

The Super Rugby season starts again this weekend, and Sportpunter once again will be giving predictions for it.

Over the years we have made 9.2% ROI betting head to head, and although the season is short, there should be plenty of opportunity to make profits again this year.

This year provides us with three new teams. The Kings, who have been in the league previously, Argentina’s Jaguares and Japans Sunwolves. Punters may remember when the AFL introduced new teams and we cleaned up betting against and for them that season. We were able to accuretly calculate the ratings for those teams and I believe we will be very good at doing it again in Super Rugby.

Ive decided to analyse how the betting for Super Rugby has gone by round. Are more profits made at the start of the year or later in the season, and should one bet early in round 1?

Whilst I haven’t collected all of the data (some of the data was stored in the early years not including the round number), history has shown that it is indeed profitable betting early in the season as well as late.

Its a small sample size no doubt, but there is no reason not to bet in round 1 in season 2016. So make sure you subscribe before Friday. Click here for all the details:
http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/rugby-union/

The AFL 2016 season is set to begin today. Well at least the pre-season is. And once again Sportpujnter will be providing predictions for the upcoming season.

Predictions for tonights match between Hawthorn and Carlton is now on the website, but I do issue caution on betting these pre-season matches. Despite the model taking into consideration who is playing, coaches will often play a player out of regular position, or for a limited time on field to test a few options for the upcoming season. New and untried players will probably get a longer run on the field than normal. Carlton have listed a near full lineup, with only Patrick Cripps the obvious non inclusion. Whilst Hawthorn will be without key forwards Roughhead, Gunston and Rioli, as well as Shields, Burgoyne and Frawley. Results from pre season matches will not be included in our betting history.

Sportpunter’s AFL Model has long been providing profits. In fact 2015 was our 17th year of predicting AFL results. All years have seen a substantial profit with the exception of 2006 and 2008 which had a  loss. On average we have gained 11% ROI over the years.

We have made 12.1% ROI from 1589 bets since 2005 betting on the line, and 10.7% ROI from the last 2366 bets betting h2h since 1999. More recently the results have even been better with 15.5% ROI made betting the line in the last 7 years All the betting histories are shown here.

With 2015 now behind us, we are now offering subscriptions for 2016. Click here to view Sportpunter’s AFL model in 2016 and lets have another great year in Sportpunter’s most favourite model.

The NBA season is set to start on Wednesday, and we’ve decided to analyse the model over the five years that we have been providing predictions for. In total line betting has made 1.6% ROI and totals 2.1% ROI. This might seem modest at first sight, but those who have bet the NBA model know very well that it performs significantly better than this in the first half of the season before fading away a little.

Shown below is a table showing how the line model has gone over the five years with the cumulative profit per week. IT shows that if one was to bet the first 7 weeks only, then you would have maximised the profit at a rate of 8.2% ROI. Pretty impressive stuff.

The table below does the same but for totals betting. It shows that 9 weeks in, and one maximises their profit at a rate of 5.5% ROI.

These week numbers of course are not be all and end all, and it will vary year to year. But they do give the punter an idea of when the model has done well in the past, and the obvious answer is from word go.

With the NBA season beginning Wednesday, you don’t want to miss a few weeks and hence miss out on all the action about when the model has traditionally performed the best.

All subscription details and prices are shown here.