NHL records very low scoring totals in March 2015
With NHL teams getting less and less power plays, the total number of goals has decreased dramatically this month. The average number of goals per match this month has been 5.20 which is the equal second lowest since 1989, after 5.17 was averaged in 2002 and 5.2 in 1998.
We’ve previously talked about how the number of goals per year has been a decreasing trend, as well as the decreasing trends in April and onwards, the link for this is shown here. However, it seems that this year, the total number has decreased quicker than normal.
Here is a table of the average goals since 2007, the percent above 4.5, 5 and 5.5 goals. Also included in the number above the bookmakers line.
As you can see the average goals decrease quite dramatically in month 4 (april) and onwards, however the percentage above the quoted bookmaker line doesn’t decrease, indicating that the bookmakers line lowers late in the season along with the totals goals scored.
| Month | AvGoals | >4.5 | >5 | >5.5 | OverLine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.67 | 70.8% | 59.2% | 47.6% | 50.5% |
| 2 | 5.54 | 68.3% | 56.5% | 44.7% | 47.7% |
| 3 | 5.58 | 69.6% | 57.9% | 46.3% | 48.2% |
| 4 | 5.45 | 68.5% | 56.0% | 43.4% | 49.4% |
| 5 | 5.29 | 64.6% | 52.8% | 41.0% | 49.8% |
| 6 | 5.24 | 56.5% | 47.8% | 39.1% | 48.2% |
| 7 | |||||
| 8 | |||||
| 9 | 5.60 | 70.7% | 57.7% | 44.7% | |
| 10 | 5.67 | 71.9% | 59.2% | 46.6% | 47.4% |
| 11 | 5.53 | 71.3% | 57.8% | 44.4% | 48.2% |
| 12 | 5.63 | 71.8% | 58.6% | 45.3% | 48.1% |
However, in 2014/15 this has changed dramatically this month. A massive decline in total goals was scored in march this season, and the amount of times that the total went over is only at 42%. Thus indicating that the decline in goals scored has been quicker than the bookmakers odds. This is shown in the table below:
| Month | AvGoals | >4.5 | >5 | >5.5 | OverLine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.66 | 70.3% | 58.5% | 46.7% | 51.2% |
| 2 | 5.48 | 67.2% | 55.1% | 43.1% | 48.2% |
| 3 | 5.20 | 58.3% | 47.9% | 37.5% | 42.0% |
| 4 | |||||
| 5 | |||||
| 6 | |||||
| 7 | |||||
| 8 | |||||
| 9 | 5.13 | 60.0% | 49.3% | 38.7% | |
| 10 | 5.45 | 68.3% | 54.4% | 40.6% | 44.1% |
| 11 | 5.43 | 72.5% | 57.4% | 42.2% | 48.3% |
| 12 | 5.44 | 66.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% | 48.3% |
Whilst Sportpunter’s NHL model had an amazing start, (18% ROI from the first 200 bets in 20 weeks), it has recently fallen away due to a larger number of over bets. The overs, are not winning as shown above, and a correction, or a change to the model to more quickly dynamically change to different conditions should be looked at, and that’s just what I’ll do.
