Start free trial
Model-based betting analysis · since 2006

Find the price that's wrong.

Sportpunter builds statistical models across 12 competitions, from the AFL and NRL to the NFL, NBA, NHL and EuroLeague. We compare our prices with the bookmakers', flag the overlays, and publish every bet and every result.

Start your 14-day free trial See the record

Then $149 a month. Cancel any time before the trial ends and pay nothing.

20years of published results
12competitions modelled
4markets: H2H, line, totals, props
14days free to try it
Sports we cover

One membership. Every season of the year.

When the footy finishes, the NFL, NBA and NHL are in full swing. A Sportpunter membership follows the calendar, so there's always a model running.

Australian football & rugby league
AFLLive
Australian Football League
Head-to-headLinePlayer propsSame-game multis
AFLWLive
AFL Women's
Head-to-headLineTotalsPlayer props
NRLLive
National Rugby League
Head-to-headLineTotals
NRLWLive
NRL Women's
Head-to-headLineTotals
North America
NFLLive
National Football League
Match model
NCAAFLive
College football
Match model
NBALive
National Basketball Association
Match model
NHLLive
National Hockey League
Match model
WNBALive
Women's National Basketball Association
Player propsMatch model
NCAABComing
College basketball
In development
England, Europe & the NBL
ESLLive
English Super League (rugby league)
Match model
NBLLive
National Basketball League
Match model
EuroLeagueFrom 25 Nov
EuroLeague Basketball
Head-to-head
How it works

We only bet when the price is wrong.

Every recommendation comes from the same three steps. No tipsters, no gut feel, no hype.

Step 1 · Model

We price every game ourselves

Each sport has its own statistical model, built on years of results and player data. It gives every outcome a probability before we look at the market.

Step 2 · Overlay

We compare with the bookmaker

When the bookmaker's price is bigger than our model says it should be, that's an overlay. Small overlays are ignored.

overlay = probability × price − 1
Step 3 · Stake

We size the bet to the edge

Bigger edges get bigger stakes, using Kelly staking. Every bet is published to members before the game and graded on our results pages afterwards.

The record

Twenty years, all of it public.

We've published every model bet since 2006, good runs and bad. Check the results yourself before you join.

2026 segmentBetsReturn
NRL Totals model19+68.8%
NRLW Line28+23.3%
AFL Disposal Unders (player props)223+15.7%
NRL Head-to-head71+13.6%
AFL Line123+10.9%
WNBA Player Props151+5.8%
AFL Head-to-head97+5.8%

Return = profit ÷ total amount bet. Figures from our published results pages. Past results do not guarantee future returns.

All results AFL 2026 season review
+14.1%AFL head-to-head, long-term return
+12.3%AFL line, first 15 rounds, long-term
+21.1%NRL, first 10 rounds since 2016
2006First published Sportpunter bet
Sportpunter logo
Who's behind it

Built by a statistician, not a tipster.

Sportpunter is run by Jonathan Lowe, who studied statistics to honours and masters level and has spent two decades building sports models and machine-learning systems.

Every model is tested on years of historical data before it goes live, then tracked in public once it does. When a market stops working, we say so and stop betting it.

Membership

Try every model free for 14 days.

Sportpunter membership
$149 / month

After a 14-day free trial. Cancel before it ends and you pay nothing.

  • Suggested bets for every sport we cover, with stakes
  • Full model predictions and overlays, not just the bets
  • Player prop probabilities and group markets
  • Season simulations, ladders and futures
  • Bet alerts by Discord and email
  • The full results history to download and analyse
Start free trial